Scottish Parliament election: How the polls have tracked shifting momentum

The 26th of June 2024 was the best day Anas Sarwar had had in years. He hasn’t had a better one since.

That date was the first time in a long time that Scottish Labour polled ahead of the SNP for Scottish Parliament voting intention – and it hasn’t repeated the feat since.

The results, collated by pollster Survation for Ballot Box Scotland, seemed to suggest that change – as promised by Labour in that year’s general election – really was coming, with Scotland set to turn ever more red.

But that crimson wave started to go back out as soon as it had come in, with Labour back behind the SNP in the very next survey, published just one day later.

Since then, poll after poll has shown a party off-track for first and even second place.

And yet Scottish Labour has kept up a confident front, with Sarwar stating that he could yet be the next first minister.

The party has briefed that its internal data shows far stronger levels of support than that suggested by the pollsters.

That was certainly the case in last year’s Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse byelection, when much of the media had taken the view that it was a straight fight between the SNP and Reform UK.

In the end, Labour’s Davy Russell won with almost 32 per cent of the vote in what was a salutary lesson to politics-watchers: don’t believe everything the polls say.

This year, closer to voting day, polls have thrown up an intriguing number of possible outcomes when it comes to seat count.

Yes, the SNP is routinely projected to become the parliament’s largest party once again. But that is on the basis of an estimated seat count that has fluctuated between 56 and 67 – a significant range that would mean the difference between majority or minority government, or even slipping back into opposition in the face of a deal between rival parties who use their combined tally to take the keys to Bute House.

Reform could create a major political upset with as many as 22 seats, some polls have suggested, while others put Malcolm Offord’s party on 14.

Meanwhile, we’ve had everything from seven to 18 for the Greens, for whom anything more than eight would be a record high. According to some results, the Lib Dems could creep back into double digits for the first time since 2007 – and the Conservatives could slip into single figures for the first time in the history of Holyrood.

That would of course be the Tories’ worst-ever performance in an election of this kind. And polls suggest that will also be the case for Labour, which could slump down to as few as 13 seats, if the lowest projections prove accurate.

And now, in the final gasps of the contest, we’ve had two more polls presenting differing versions of the future – but both with very modest returns for Labour.

One by Ipsos predicts a 57-seat total for the SNP, which would push majority government far from touching distance, with Reform on 20, the Greens on 18 and Labour down to just 15 MSPs. The Lib Dem outcome is expected to be 11, with the Conservatives on only eight.

It was published shortly after Jackie Baillie, deputy leader of the party and one of the two masterminds behind its election campaign, appeared tearful onstage at an event in Glasgow.

And it came hours after an MRP by YouGov put the SNP on 64 seats, Reform on 19, Labour on 17, the Greens on 16, the Lib Dems on eight and the Conservatives on seven.

Dumbarton, the seat Baillie has held since 1999, is amongst the seats where the likely outcome, YouGov said, is a ‘toss-up’ – one of several seats where the estimated lead is thought to be five points or less. SNP councillor Sophie Traynor is in a “tight race” with Baillie, the pollster said, and a win for the SNP’s Kirsten Oswald, a former MP, is “well within reach” in Eastwood, where former Scottish Conservative leader Jackson Carlaw is defending his seat.

Another such seat is Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill, where boundary changes mean the SNP’s Bob Doris, who has long represented the northern half of the constituency, could lose out to Iris Duane of the Greens.

Meanwhile, the Tories and Reform are “no more than seven points behind” the SNP in Galloway and West Dumfries, and narrow margins mean John Swinney’s party is ‘vulnerable’ to the Tories in Aberdeenshire West and Reform UK in Dumfriesshire.

Edinburgh Central, one of the most complex battles of the election, remains a three-horse race between the SNP, Labour and the Greens, with the former party leading by just six points.

What the polls do agree on is that smaller parties and independents don’t appear to have a look-in in this contest.

It’s also clear from the research that the entrance of another pro-union party has further splintered the unionist vote.

And it’s far from certain that Anas Sarwar and his Tory counterpart Russell Findlay can survive such a drubbing.

Nigel Farage did Boris Johnson a favour in the 2019 general election when he declared that his party, then the Brexit Party, would not stand against the Conservatives in more than 300 seats in order to avoid such a carve-up of pro-Leave support.

There is of course no such deal in place here. In fact, in its tactical voting guide campaign group Scotland in Union did not recommend switching to Reform UK. Perhaps some in longer-established parties will wish some agreement had been made. But this has been an election campaign in which the relationship between Reform and Labour has been under scrutiny, with Sarwar strongly denying Offord’s claim of a proffered post-election pact.

Offord’s comment provided one of the defining moments of the race, as did his unprompted TV declaration of ownership of six houses, six boats and five cars.

Polling can tell us something about that too. Research by More in Common found 23 per cent of people said the comment had reflected well on Offord, while 44 per cent said it reflected badly on him.

As for Ross Greer, who countered that Scotland needs fewer people like Offord, as many as 36 per cent thought that reflected badly on him, with 26 per cent taking the opposite view.