Deal or no deal: What might the next Scottish Government look like?

Questions about electoral pacts and accusations of dodgy deals are no stranger to a Holyrood election campaign. That’s a natural consequence of a system which by its nature is unlikely (though not impossible) for one party to win an outright majority.

But the seemingly inevitable presence of Reform UK in the next Scottish Parliament has ratchetted up such chatter this time around.

The SNP is keen to push the narrative that Labour will attempt to win Bute House next year with the support of Reform MSPs. A “dodgy backroom deal,” John Swinney has called it, seeking to use the right-wing party as a bogeyman to scare voters away from Labour. That fits nicely with his claim that only a vote for his party will lock Nigel Farage out of Scottish politics, while a vote for anyone else risks letting the Clacton MP pull the strings behind the scenes.

The idea of such a possibility was lent some credence when a story in The Scotsman said Anas Sarwar had identified a potential route to power, even if his is not the largest party in May, by relying on Reform. But it’s important to place that in some context: any party that does not have a majority – including the SNP – will need to do a deal with at least one other party to form a government.

Such a deal would not have to take the form of a full coalition. The SNP itself has been a minority administration on multiple occasions, passing budgets and other legislation on a deal-by-deal basis. Bargaining between parties could be anything from a small incentive to encourage MSPs to abstain in the first minister election to a more thorough pact, à la the SNP/Green Bute House Agreement.

The Scotsman story also made it clear that Labour wasn’t solely focused on Reform. The scenario being painted is that the SNP, Reform and Labour will all have decent-sized blocs (assuming Labour can narrow the SNP’s current poll lead, itself not a given) but Sarwar would be able to secure the backing of unionist parties to become the next FM. In other words, some sort of arrangement involving Reform and/or the Conservatives and/or the Lib Dems.

The recent Channel 4 debate saw Reform’s leader in Scotland Malcolm Offord claim that Sarwar had already put out feelers to see if such a deal was possible. Sarwar himself denied this, calling it “utter nonsense” on the night and later dubbing Offord “a liar”.

The truth of the matter may never be known. But another important point is whether Reform would even be amenable to such a deal. The party’s biggest focus is the next general election, where it is seeking to replace Labour.

A deal north of the border could damage those prospects if its supporters believe the party has become part of the establishment. And Farage has said on record that he’d rather see Swinney in office again than have Sarwar become first minister. That statement was made a year ago, but since the row Offord has said he would not do a deal with Sarwar.

That calculation could change once the votes are counted. The argument in favour of a deal could be that the party wants to be taken seriously. Farage has previously admitted Reform is not ready to form a government, and a deal – formal or otherwise – could be a stepping stone.

While it is difficult to see Labour push for a formal arrangement with Reform, is there a world in which the party would say no to a small concession to secure the bigger prize?

And what of the other possible pacts? A minority SNP government supported by the Greens still feels like the most likely possibility, though Swinney will probably want to avoid another Bute House Agreement so as to not encourage suggestions of the Green tail wagging the SNP dog.

Ross Greer has repeatedly made it clear that he would be willing to work with any party who would take on board some Green policies. Yes, that could mean working once more with his “work dad” Swinney. But cooperation with Labour can’t be ruled out.

And while Alex Cole-Hamilton has previously told Holyrood his party would not prop up another SNP government, the party has also been pragmatic to its approach to budgets of late. It may pursue that same pragmatic approach in the next session, particularly since his ideal scenario of a Labour/Lib Dem coalition seems out of reach.

Nearly any combination of parties is possible after 7 May, once the dust has settled and we know the  lay of the land. Politicians are in politics because  they want power and that, by necessity, means negotiating, bargaining and also being willing to walk away.