Indyref could have been held three years earlier, government papers show

The first SNP government wargamed an indyref before the 2011 election, declassified papers show. 

Alex Salmond’s first administration was elected on a manifesto that included a referendum pledge. 

That promise was not delivered until 2014, when Scotland voted to stay in the UK.

Documents published by National Records of Scotland show how Salmond’s cabinet looked at the feasibility of trying to stage the historic ballot while in minority government. 

Considerations included the weight of opposition from Holyrood’s unionist parties, and the chance that moving forward would mean overstepping the parliament’s powers. 

Papers from August 2010 include a potential timetable for an independence referendum “to be held before [parliamentary] dissolution in March 2011”. 

If followed, it would have seen a bill introduced to parliament in September 2010, with stage one considerations following six and a half weeks later and Royal Assent achieved by January 2011.  

The papers note that this would be under “an accelerated parliamentary process” – as well as concerns about the credibility of such a plan.  

Ministers considered the possibility that the presiding officer, who was then Alex Fergusson, could rule the bill’s contents outwith parliamentary competence – years before Salmond’s successor Nicola Sturgeon would go to court to seek clarification on the same lines. 

The 2010 papers said that while a negative decision from Fergusson would not have meant the bill could not be introduced, the papers state “it would be likely to be voted down at the first available opportunity”. 

“If that happened, the Scottish Government could then challenge the United Kingdom Government to give the Scottish Parliament the legislative competence to let the people of Scotland have their say,” the papers continue. 

And cabinet members were reminded that “sending the bill to the presiding officer does not of course commit” them to introducing the bill, “even if he rules that it is within competence”.  

In the end, while a draft bill did emerge, it was not immediately introduced and the SNP was returned with an overall majority in 2011, having run on a manifesto that committed it to bring forward a referendum bill “in this next parliament”. 

A consultation paper followed in January 2012 and, in the preface to that document, then prime minister David Cameron and his deputy Nick Clegg said: “We will not stand in the way of a referendum on independence: the future of Scotland's place within the United Kingdom is for people in Scotland to vote on.” 

The Edinburgh Agreement between Cameron and Salmond was signed at St Andrew’s House later that year, giving the devolved administration the authority to stage the referendum. 

Sturgeon had hoped to hold a repeat ballot in October 2023. But she did not have another agreement with UK ministers and went to the Supreme Court to ascertain whether this would be within parliamentary competency. 

Judges ruled that it would not and the Scottish Government said it would respect the court’s decision.