Removing Keir Starmer could boost independence chances, John Swinney claims

The removal of Keir Starmer as prime minister after next May could help the SNP with its push for Scottish independence, the first minister has claimed.

John Swinney said that he believes Starmer will be ousted if the SNP is successful in achieving a majority in the next Scottish Parliament election.

This, in turn, would remove one of the barriers to securing another referendum on the constitution, he argued.

The first minister was speaking at an Institute for Government event in London.

With six months to go until Scotland goes to the polls, he said his part was going into the election “confident in its record” and with an “optimistic and hopeful message” about the opportunities presented by independence.

At its conference last month, the party backed a new strategy for leaving the UK. The policy adopted states that winning an outright majority in 2026 would “deliver a mandate that cannot be contested or rejected”.

Swinney argued it would be difficult for the UK Government to ignore the precedent set in 2011, when the SNP last won a majority which led to the first referendum.

Asked what the difference was between an SNP majority and an independence-supporting majority at the Scottish Parliament (as is currently the case), Swinney said the “big difference” was the “the SNP-only majority was not ignored”.

UK ministers have continued to insist they would refuse a request for a second independence referendum to take place even if the SNP secures a majority.

But Swinney said: “If that [a majority] was to happen in May of next year, then I have no doubt that the prime minister would not survive in office. So that breaks the logjam right away.”

Asked whether his references to precedent meant he intended to challenge any refusal by UK ministers via legal routes, he said: “I said to my party conference I’d have a tactical approach to how I move through this, so I’m not going to shed more light on that.

“What I’m simply saying is that I’m setting out a route that will trigger a process that we will pursue, and we’ll use the necessary tactics to make sure it’s successful.”

Swinney also spoke about the upcoming UK Budget, calling on the chancellor to end the two-child cap on benefits and address wider cost-of-living concerns.

And when asked about the news of the Mossmoran ethylene plant closure, announced yesterday, he said he was “very concerned” about the site’s future as it was a “significant industrial facility”.

Pointing to work underway at the Grangemouth industrial cluster – which earlier this year saw Scotland’s last oil refinery cease operations – he said the government would “open up the consideration” of business ideas for Grangemouth to Mossmoran as well.

But he added some of this was in the hands of the UK Government and there was a need for close alignment between the two governments on this.