SNP on track for majority thanks to tactical voting, according to new polling

The SNP is on track for a historic 67-seat majority at the upcoming Scottish Parliament election, according to a new poll. 

The first MRP poll for the Holyrood election, conducted by Stonehaven for The Times, found that a collapse in support for Scottish Labour is set to propel John Swinney’s party to within two seats of the biggest win in the history of the Scottish Parliament, which was achieved by the SNP in 2011 under the leadership of Alex Salmond.  

The party has said that winning a majority of seats at the election would give it an undeniable mandate for a second independence referendum.  

Previous polling has suggested that Swinney will be elected as first minister but that his independence strategy will likely not come to fruition, with all conventional polls suggesting the SNP would fall short of the number of seats needed.   

According to analysis by Stonehaven, which predicted the result of the 2024 general election within 38 seats, tactical voting will give the SNP the edge it needs to deliver a majority. It suggests that one in four Scottish Labour voters is willing to vote for the SNP in order to block Reform. 

This would result in the nationalists winning all but six of the constituency seats.  

The MRP polling suggests that Scottish Labour will win only the Western Isles constituency of Na h-Eileanan an Iar, and Anas Sarwar’s party will only return a maximum of two seats available on each of the regional lists. Stonehaven’s analysis suggests that the party will remain the third-largest party at Holyrood, but with a reduced 15 seats. 

It also predicts that Reform UK will not return a single constituency MSP but would, however, benefit from the regional list system, returning 25 seats. 

Reform UK is within five points of the SNP in three constituencies: Banffshire and Buchan Coast, Dumfriesshire, and Galloway and West Dumfries. 

The Scottish Liberal Democrats would become the fourth-largest party, increasing its seats to eight, while the Scottish Conservatives would see a huge decrease from the 31 seats it achieved in 2021 to being tied with the Scottish Greens on seven. 

This would see the Tories – currently the second-largest party at Holyrood – return as the joint smallest in its worst result since devolution. 

Luke Betham, head of data science at Stonehaven, said: “Tactical voting is likely to play a significant role this May, with a handful of closely fought constituency contests set to decide whether or not the SNP secures an overall majority for the first time since 2011. 

“At the same time, our modelling points to Reform becoming the main opposition force in Holyrood, ahead of the Conservatives and Labour. That kind of generational realignment would cause an almighty headache for both Sir Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch. 

“John Swinney has already said winning an outright majority would be a mandate for a second independence referendum, based on the precedent set in 2011. 

“Labour has indicated it would reject calls for a rerun of 2014, which would likely lead to a souring of relations between Edinburgh and Westminster.”