SNP one seat short of majority, new poll finds

The SNP is set to be one short of a parliamentary majority after May’s election, a fresh poll has found.

The projection based on More in Common polling puts the nationalists on 64 seats, while Reform and Labour battle it out for second place on 17 and 16 seats, respectively.

The Scottish Conservatives would lose more than half their current seats, slipping to just 12 MSPs, with the Liberal Democrats close behind on 11 and the Greens on nine.

SNP leader and first minister John Swinney has set his sights on winning a majority on the basis it could lead to another referendum on Scottish independence.

The party voted last autumn to its new independence strategy, where Swinney argued that winning outright in May was the “only uncontested way to deliver” a new vote. He cited the party’s 2011 victory as setting a precedent.

However, multiple polls since then have indicated the SNP would struggle to achieve this majority. It is believed this poll is the first to put it in touching distance of that target.

The SNP’s support continues to be significantly behind the peaks it enjoyed in the 2016 and 2021 elections, with More in Common putting current support at 33 per cent in the constituency ballot and 31 per cent for the list vote.

But the pollster says it is benefitting from a “highly fragmented electorate” which would see just less than half of the constituencies won with less than 35 per cent of the vote.

Reform, which is expected to make its first major breakthrough at a Scottish election, is on 18 per cent in the constituency vote and 16 on the regional one, while Labour is slightly ahead in the constituency (19 per cent) and level on the list ballot.

The Conservatives and Lib Dems are level with one another, both on 11 per cent for the constituency vote and 12 per cent on the list.

This would see the Conservatives lose all bar one constituency, retaining only the Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire (currently held by deputy leader Rachael Hamilton) while losing its strongholds of Dumfriesshire and Galloway and West Dumfries.

The Lib Dems would see the Caithness, Sutherland and Ross constituency, the seat currently held by SNP minister Maree Todd, added to its roster.

Meanwhile the Greens received nine per cent on the list but just six per cent on the constituency, though the party is unlikely to field many candidates for the latter.

The pollster asked 1,035 Scottish adults about their voting intention between 30 January and 10 February.