Poll: SNP in pole position despite growing unhappiness with government

The SNP remains in a strong position ahead of May’s Holyrood election, despite low levels of satisfaction with the party’s performance in government.

The final Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) poll before the election found just 23 per cent of respondents thought the party was doing a “good job” in office, compared with 40 per cent in December 2021.

But continued backing from those who support Scottish independence means the SNP is “well placed” to compete for most of the country’s 73 constituency votes.

This combined with the growing strength of the Scottish Greens on the list means voters could return a “comfortable” pro-independence majority at May’s election.

When ‘don’t knows’ and other non-responses are removed and population weights applied, the SNP sit on 34 per cent of the constituency vote, with Reform UK the next best performers on 18 per cent and Labour slipping to 14 per cent.

On the list, meanwhile, the Scottish Greens are the party challenging Reform for second place.

But fewer than a third of those who voted for Labour in the 2024 general election intend to do so for the party in May.

Just eight per cent of Scots believe the Labour government has done a good job. Even among 2024 Labour voters, only 15 per cent think Keir Starmer’s government has been a success.

SES Principal Investigator Ailsa Henderson, a professor of political science at the University of Edinburgh, said: “The May 2026 election is taking place in a wider context of anti-incumbent attitudes, and while this continues to hurt the recent and current UK governing parties, the SNP is faring well for three reasons: they are buoyed by support from pro-indy voters, the pro-indy Scottish Greens have opted not to stand candidates in seats where they might have challenged the SNP, and increased competition on the pro-union side of the party spectrum raises demands on pro-union voters hoping to vote strategically.

“In such an environment, whether the SNP forms a government on its own could well depend on turnout and the level of tactical voting.”

The polling also found Scottish Conservative losses and Scottish Liberal Democrat gains since 2021 mean the two are now neck and neck, with both parties achieving 10 per cent share of vote intention across constituency and list ballots.

Reform’s share of vote intention remains consistent, at 18 per cent on the constituency ballot and 19 per cent on the list, having levelled off since its initial surge in late 2024.

If this was replicated at the election in May, the party would come second to the SNP.

Data were collected online by YouGov for the ESRC-funded Scottish Election Study between the 11 and 18 February, with 1,517 Scotland-resident voting-age adults (16+) contacted.