SNP maintains lead in new Scottish election poll

The SNP is out in front in yet another Scottish election poll – which found voters would prefer a majority government.

John Swinney’s party came out in front in research which also found that almost half of voters – 47 per cent – would prefer one party with a majority to form the next government in Edinburgh.

Just 18 per cent said they wanted to see a formal coalition between two or more parties.

Only 15 per cent wanted a minority government working with others without a formal deal in place. Meanwhile, 20 per cent did not know which outcome they would prefer.

The findings, released by the Diffley Partnership, come with ten days until Scotland goes to the ballot box.

And the research shows the SNP maintaining its poll lead – but still coming short of a majority in the Scottish Parliament.

The party polled at 38 per cent for the constituency contest and 29 per cent for the regional list.

In second place, Reform UK was on 20 per cent for constituencies and 19 per cent for the list, with Labour in third place at 18 per cent and 17 per cent respectively.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives were at 12 per cent on both ballots, with the Scottish Green Party – which is only running in six constituencies – polling at 12 per cent on the list and two per cent for constituencies.

The Liberal Democrats recorded around 10 per cent in each contest.

The results, compiled by Survation, would give the SNP 62 seats and leave Reform on 19, Labour on 17 and the Greens on 12. Meanwhile, the Conservatives would win 11 and the Lib Dems would win eight.

No seats would be won by independents, despite the candidacies of figures like Fergus Ewing and Ash Regan.

The result would see a pro-independence majority returned to Holyrood.

The poll, involving more than 1,000 people, found Scots divided on the constitution with 52 per cent saying they would vote Yes in another indyref and 48 per cent saying they would vote No.

The same numbers were recorded on the question of whether the election of an SNP majority or a pro-independence majority of MSPs would deliver a mandate for a indyref2.

An SNP minority government was found to be the “most acceptable option” for  voters, with a net favourability score of -1. That compares with -8 for an SNP-Green coalition and -21 for a Labour minority government.

At -17, a coalition involving Labour was more popular, while any governing arrangement involving Reform UK recorded a net favourability score of -16.

That option also attracted the strongest strength of opposition, with 43 per cent of respondents saying that would be “very unfavourable”.

John Swinney was found to be the most popular leader with a net favourability score of -4, compared with -19 for Labour’s Anas Sarwar and -21 for Reform’s Malcolm Offord.

When put head-to-head in a choice of potential first ministers, 58 per cent preferred Swinney over Sarwar, with 42 per cent choosing the opposite.

Sixty-eight per cent chose Swinney above Offord, compared with 32 per cent for the opposite result.

And 60 per cent preferred Sarwar over Offord, compared to 40 per cent who wanted Offord over Sarwar.

Scott Edgar, senior research manager at Diffley Partnership, said: “This polling suggests a complex and finely balanced contest. While the SNP remain clearly ahead and on course to be the largest party, albeit short of an overall majority, support for the other parties is broadly dispersed.

“If these figures were repeated on polling day, Scotland would be heading towards a fragmented parliament, meaning relatively small shifts in support between now and next Thursday could have a significant impact on the final distribution of seats.

“At the same time, voters are divided on both the independence question itself and on whether a pro-independence majority in the parliament would amount to a clear mandate for another referendum.

“Attitudes towards minority and coalition arrangements are similarly mixed, suggesting that post‑election decision‑making will take place in the absence of a clear consensus.”