Scottish politics will remain stuck in a rut until the constitutional question is resolved

Sometimes you just have to sit back and admire a master at work. Launching his party’s election manifesto in Glasgow earlier this month, John Swinney told his audience: “I keep my promises. That is my record. It’s a record I am proud to take to the people of Scotland.” When it was pointed out he had in fact broken numerous promises and his record included a housing emergency, drugs-death scandal and ferry fiasco, the first minister urged us not to get bogged down in the detail – things are great and can only get better! 

Swinney’s big idea at the manifesto launch was for price controls to be introduced to lower the cost of everyday items such as bread and milk. While similar caps are in place elsewhere, notably France, and were considered at one point by Rishi Sunak’s government, the plan looks pretty much undeliverable, an election stunt designed to stoke grievance towards the UK Government which will almost certainly block it under the post-Brexit Internal Market Act. 

Also on the gimmicky side is the SNP’s plan to give a ‘Welcome to School Bag’ to every P1 pupil. It’s unclear how much the proposal will cost or whether it will go the same way as previous ‘promises’ to provide every child in Scotland with a tablet or offer bikes for those who can’t afford them, but amid falling teacher numbers and declining educational standards, perhaps the money could be better spent elsewhere.  

And yet while it’s easy to be cynical about them, the SNP at least has ideas. You may not like those ideas; you may find them reductive, unserious even, but after almost 20 years in power the party is offering up more at this election than Scottish Labour. Anas Sarwar’s strategy has been to promise very little other than ‘change’. You may remember Keir Starmer did something similar in 2024 to great effect. The problem for Sarwar is that voters have had two years to see what that change looks like and, as a result, Nigel Farage is currently favourite to be prime minister after the next election.

Sarwar has been badly undermined by his party’s performance at Westminster which has seen Scottish Labour go from leading the polls to tanking in them. A recent survey by Ipsos put the party on track for its worst-ever performance at Holyrood, a result that would see it end up with fewer seats than not only the SNP but also the Scottish Greens and Reform. 

Those most dire of predictions may not yet come to pass, but it’s hard to see how Sarwar could have significantly re-shaped the narrative ahead of 7 May, given the performance of the Labour government. His most dramatic move as leader, to call for Starmer’s resignation, now looks inspired given the questions which would otherwise have dogged him on the campaign trail amid the sleaze of the Mandelson scandal. But even that has failed to shift the polls significantly in his favour.

That’s because 12 years on from the independence referendum the scars have yet to heal, the constitutional question remaining an open sore in Scottish politics. For the roughly 50 per cent of the population who support leaving the UK, there is no other vehicle than the SNP. Meanwhile, the unionist vote is split between Labour, the Tories, the Lib Dems and now Reform. Despite all the SNP’s failings – and regardless of what Swinney says, there are many – it’s hard to blame those voters who look at the performance of Starmer’s government and see the nationalists as the lesser of two evils. 

Swinney has put independence at the centre of his campaign, arguing that a Holyrood majority for the SNP gives the party a mandate for a referendum – just as it did when Alex Salmond won one in 2011. No one seriously believes the UK Government will accede to that demand, a point underscored by English health secretary Wes Streeting in somewhat dismissive terms during a radio interview earlier this month. But at the same time no one believes the SNP will stop talking about independence if it fails to achieve a parliamentary majority. 

These past five years have been a low point in the history of devolution. A parliament which promised so much – the tackling of poverty, the overhaul of social care – became mired in fractious debate around gender recognition reform while an ailing ferry service left islanders cut off from the mainland, patients waited hours for treatment in hospital corridors, and prisoners were released early from their sentences to ease the pressure on the country’s overcrowded jails. 

What’s that they say about doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results? After two decades in power, the SNP has shown it doesn’t have what it takes to solve many of Scotland most challenging problems. The case for independence is perhaps flimsier than it’s ever been and yet until the question has been asked for a second time, it’s hard to see how we can move forward together.