Poll: SNP remains on course for victory but support ‘bleeding’

The SNP remains on track to be the largest party at Holyrood after the election but is set to fall short of a majority.

A new poll has put the party on 35 per cent for the constituency vote and 29 per cent on the list vote, well ahead of its nearest rivals.

Reform and Labour continue to battle it out for second place, with both on 20 per cent for the constituency vote, but Reform just edging it in the regional ballot at 19 per cent to Labour’s 17.

The Conservatives would drop to fourth place, polling at 13 per cent on both ballots.

The Greens are on 11 per cent on the list vote but drop to one per cent in the constituency vote (a reflection of the fact they are only standing in six seats), while the Lib Dems are on eight per cent on the list and 10 per cent for constituencies.

A projection by Ballot Box Scotland (BBS), which commissioned the poll, says this would see the SNP return 57 MSPs, Reform 21, Labour 18, Conservatives 13, Greens 11 and Lib Dems nine.

Allan Faulds, BBS founder, said the fact the fall in the Greens’ constituency support does not benefit for the SNP “may indicate a bleeding of the support” for John Swinney’s party.

He added: “ This would nonetheless still potentially elect a small pro-Independence majority of 68 MSPs. However, even were the SNP and Greens combined to fall short, the prospects of a pro-Union alternative [government] would hinge on Reform UK.”

Scots remain split fairly evenly on the question of independence, with 51 per cent backing it compared to 49 per cent who said they would remain in the Union, excluding those who don’t know how they would vote.

The poll also asked for views on potential cross-party deals to form the next Scottish Government.

A third of voters said Reform was the party they would least like to be in government. Green voters were most opposed to this at 78 per cent, but a majority of Labour (56 per cent) and SNP (52 per cent) also said the same.

At 17 per cent, SNP were the next least popular option – most opposed by Reform (40 per cent) and Conservative (38 per cent) voters.

The poll was conducted by Survation between 14 and 21 April, involved 1,008 eligible voters.