Big tax, big spend – but the Scottish Greens have set out their stall for coalition talks

There is plenty to like in the Scottish Greens manifesto. The picture it paints of a Scotland with expanded free childcare, free bus travel, more teachers, more homes, more social care, more nature restoration is a pleasant one.

But it would also be costly, hugely so. And it raises questions of whether such commitments are credible.

To be fair to the Greens, the party has levelled with the public about how they intend to fund it: taxes. Eight pages of the manifesto are a section on Scotland’s finances, setting out a series of reforms to existing taxes (council, LBTT, non-domestic rates) and introducing new ones (private jets, cruise ships, stadiums, wealth).

Co-leader Ross Greer said his party was being “honest” with the public about what it would take to deliver the Scotland his party wants.

And as the Institute of Fiscal Studies’ David Phillips said, “it is welcome to see a party that plans substantial spending increases combine it with a recognition that this would need higher revenues”.

But on the downside: “The proposals set out seem unlikely to raise enough revenue to fund all the additional spending that would be required to deliver the Scottish Greens’ plans. To pay for those, increases in taxes would probably have to be even larger than suggested, or cuts made to other day-to-day spending that the Scottish Greens deem lower priority.”

Phillips says they seem unlikely because the manifesto also omits any proper estimates. When quizzed by journalists after the launch, Greer was able to reel off a few numbers relating to a handful of policies – free bus travel would cost £275m a year, for example – but he largely dodged the question of how much the entire package would cost.

He added: “The concept of a fully costed manifesto is frankly a misleading one to the public… We make no apologies for the fact this is ambitious, and the spending proposals in here are ambitious. So are the tax proposals. We would raise the revenues that we’d require to do this.”

Ambitious or not, the lack of figures will ring alarm bells for many. Voters might struggle to believe these commitments are anything more than make believe, certainly without big tax rises that could impact their own households.

The IFS also flags that many of the Greens’ new taxes are less about raising revenue and more about behavioural change. Greer said as much when speaking about the private jet tax; he hopes the end result will be fewer private airplanes rather than more cash for the coffers.

Using taxes to promote a change can be a legitimate strategy. The single-use bag charge is the one that immediately springs to mind. But it can’t be the only measure, and the IFS warns that some of the Greens’ proposals could “distort and reduce economic activity and would seriously complicate the Scottish tax system”.

The important context for this manifesto is the Greens know they won’t have to deliver it in full. But it does set out what the party’s MSP bloc may ask for if they are kingmakers in the next parliament. This is its starting position.

Asked about possible deals, Greer was frank about his ambitions. “Clearly it’s easier for a party to deliver its policies from within government – but whatever position we’re in in the next parliament, we will use it to deliver on the policies we’ve been elected to deliver.”

The SNP, who may turn once again to the Greens if they fail to achieve a majority, will no doubt have its policy wonks pouring through these pages in the coming months to see what could be offered to secure another term in office.

Taken as a whole, the manifesto may seem outlandish and fantastical. But it could also be a useful tool for predicting what we could see come to Holyrood in the next session, once the dust has settled on the election and parties begin the hard work of negotiation.