Poll: Greens to become Scottish Parliament’s second biggest party

The Scottish Greens are set to become the Scottish Parliament’s second biggest party, according to new polling.

The research has the SNP in first place on a potential 63 seats, with the Greens – until now one of the parliament’s smallest parties – rising to second place on 17.

If accurate, the result will see the eco-socialist party, which is led by Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay, leapfrog over the Conservatives and Labour, which is projected to record its worst ever Holyrood election performance.

And it would see challenger Reform UK miss out on the major upset some earlier polling has predicted.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said: “With more than four in 10 voters saying they may change their minds, however, none of Scotland’s parties can afford to be complacent.”

Published today, the Ipsos Scotland Political Pulse survey of 1,000 was conducted in the first week of campaigning.

It shows the SNP on 39 per cent of the Scottish Parliament constituency vote and 29 per cent on the list vote, which could see it gain 63 seats.

Despite its general election win, Labour is polling at 15 per cent in the constituency contest and 15 per cent on the list – a result which would see them drop to 14 seats.

While the Greens only poll seven per cent for constituencies, the party is at 16 per cent on the list and could therefore gain 17 seats.

Reform UK is at 15 per cent for constituencies and 16 per cent on the list, and heading for a seat total of 15 – one more than Labour.

Meanwhile, support for the Scottish Conservatives – which formed the second biggest party in the last parliament – is at 11 per cent for constituencies and 13 per cent for the list, making for a 12-seat total.

And the Lib Dems are predicted to pick up eight seats, thanks to support of 10 per cent in the constituency battle and nine per cent on the list.

The findings give the SNP a 24-point advantage over Labour.

Voters who intend to back the SNP or Reform were found to be surer of their vote than those planning on supporting Tory, Labour or Lib Dem.

Of those waivering, one quarter said they may opt for the Greens, with one in five considering the SNP and the same level thinking about Labour or the Lib Dems.

Gray said: “The SNP will be buoyed by these new numbers. Our poll shows them improving their polling lead early in the Holyrood election campaigns, John Swinney’s approval rating has risen, and the party remains the most trusted to handle the biggest issue for voters at this election, the NHS.

“Meanwhile, the poll makes grim reading for Scottish Labour, showing their support weakening on both constituency and regional list votes.”

She went on: “For the SNP, voters switching allegiance between now and polling day could make the crucial difference to whether the party wins a majority of seats or is again a minority government.”

None of the party leaders had a positive net satisfaction rating, but Alex Cole-Hamilton of the Lib Dems was the most popular on -7. However, 36 per cent of people said they didn’t know what they thought of him.

SNP head John Swinney was the second most popular at -8, compared with Labour’s Anas Sarwar on -29 and Russell Findlay of the Conservatives on -30.

Reform’s Malcolm Offord had the lowest result at -41, Green co-leaders Greer and Mackay on -15 and -13 respectively.

While 34 per cent of voters said they would be happy to see the Greens have influence over the next Scottish Government, 29 per cent said they would be unhappy.

More than half – 52 per cent – said they would be unhappy to see Reform UK achieve that influence, while 40 per cent said the same of the Conservatives.

For Scottish Labour, 32 per cent would be happy to see them attain influence, while 27 per cent would be unhappy.

Commenting on the poll, Mackay said: “This would be a huge breakthrough for the Scottish Greens. If we can make these numbers a reality it would transform Scottish politics overnight.”