Long-term climate targets still at ‘significant risk’

The Scottish Government has a “credible plan” in place to hit the first of its new climate targets but there are “significant risks” when it comes to future ambitions, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has said.

The Scottish Parliament scrapped the annual emissions reduction targets two years ago in favour of carbon budgets, which instead created a legally binding five-year cap on total emissions.

In its latest progress report, the advisory body has said that government action has improved in recent years and plans are largely in place for staying with the first 2026-2030 carbon budget.

However, it warned of gaps in policy for meeting the second (2031-35) and third (2036-40) budgets, particularly in relation to reducing emissions links to home heating.

It also says there is a “significant level of reliance” on new negative emissions technologies, many of which are not yet at delivery stage.

Nigel Topping, chair of the CCC, said: “The Scottish Government has the policy powers to make the majority of the required emissions reduction happen but only if they take action now.

“Electrification will take Scotland most of the way to net zero, but to achieve this progress must extend action beyond the energy sector to electrifying cars, buildings, and industry. 

“Low carbon home heating is a critical part of Scotland’s transition, and the next decade will be decisive for supply chains. Current plans for buildings are too slow and rely on a risky late 2030s catch-up. Scotland needs to accelerate the roll-out of heat pumps now.”  

Scotland aims to hit net zero by 2045, five years ahead of the rest of the UK.

It previously had a series of milestone targets in place, the first being to reduce emissions from 1990 levels by 75 per cent by 2030.

However, with that deadline looming and a series of annual emissions targets being missed, the CCC warned there was no longer a “credible” route to achieve that target.

Ministers moved to re-legislate in April 2024, switching to the carbon budget model which is in place elsewhere in the UK. 

The first carbon budget runs from this year until 2030, with the CCC saying there are “credible plans” and “plans with only some risks” in place for 91 per cent of emissions reduction needed to meet this budget.

It has praised achievements relating to the roll-out of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure and peatland restoration efforts.

But it says there are only plans in place to meet 64 per cent of the second carbon budget and 58 per cent for the third.

Policies relating to these later budgets either contain significant risks or are insufficiently planned, the CCC adds.

There is a lack of policy on decarbonising the heating of homes and non-road mobile machinery.

Ministers recently had to shelve its heat in buildings bill which would have created an obligation on homeowners to move to greener heating systems such as heat pumps. 

This was first delayed over cost concerns a year ago, before ministers decided to push decisions back until after the 2026 elections citing a lack of detail about the UK Government’s forthcoming warm homes plan.

Policy areas where there are significant risks relate to carbon capture and storage projects, such as Acorn in the north-east, and technologies depending on it.

The CCC has made 18 “priority recommendations” for government to now take forward, including publication of the delayed final climate change plan, strategies on decarbonising heating and land use, and a delivery plan for negative emissions technologies.

Climate secretary Gillian Martin said: “The Climate Change Committee’s advice accompanies the extensive engagement and consultation the government has undertaken on the draft plan.

“We will use this feedback to inform the forthcoming final Climate Change Plan – which will help inform future decision making and ensure that we reach net zero in a way that is fair, ambitious and capable of rising to the emergency before us.”

Climate campaigners say the report highlights climate targets are in “real jeopardy” due to the lack of long-term plans.

Oxfam Scotland chief Jamie Livingstone said: “Progress, albeit against weakened climate ambition, is undoubtedly positive, but beneath the surface lies a clear warning: long-term plans lack credibility, cash and a clear route to delivery. 

“Scotland’s approach is too reliant on science fiction and too silent on where the significant cash injection needed will come from – that’s a high-stakes climate gamble. Meaningful climate action will take real money and, to be truly fair, the costs must fall on polluters and those most able to pay, not on families already feeling the squeeze.”

Dr Mike Robison, chair of Stop Climate Chaos Scotland, said: “Our coalition is calling for faster and stronger action that will improve public wellbeing, boost the economy and keep the country on track to reach net zero by 2045.

“Key moves include a ramp-up in installation of clean heating systems; creation of reliable, low-carbon public transport links; better support for the agriculture sector; and an end to the naive over-reliance on unproven tech as a magic wand to remove future emissions.

“All these issues must be urgently addressed in the final Climate Change Plan to ensure it presents a credible pathway for reducing emissions and reverses the worrying trend of delayed action.”