SNP maintains lead but Labour beats Reform in new poll

The SNP has maintained its lead over other parties in a new poll ahead of May’s election.

The governing party is backed by 36 per cent of people on the constituency voting intention and 26 per cent on the regional list.

Both figures are considerably down from the party’s 2021 performance but still represent a strong lead over others.

In news that will cheer Scottish Labour, however, the party comes in second place with 20 per cent on the constituency ballot and 19 per cent on the list.

Other recent polls have put the party third or sometimes even fourth behind Reform and the Greens.

Reform continues to poll well, though, with 16 per cent and 14 per cent on the constituency and regional voting intentions, respectively.

The Greens are on just seven per cent of the constituency vote, though 16 per cent of voters intend to back the party on the list.

The Conservatives remain on track for their worst-ever result, with just nine and 11 per cent of people saying they intend to back them.

And 10 per cent of voters say they will support the Liberal Democrats on both ballots.

A seat projection based on these figures by STV shows these results, if mirrored in May, would see the SNP return 60 MSPs, Labour 20, the Greens 16, Reform 13, and the Conservatives and Lib Dems 10 apiece.

However, the Ipsos poll also highlighted a high proportion of people may change their minds between now and polling day on 7 May.

Of those who expressed a voting intention, 40 per cent said they “may change their mind” compared to 59 per cent who said they have definitely decided.

Reform supporters are most likely to say they will definitely back the party, at 72 per cent, followed by the SNP on 64.

Scottish Tory supporters say they are most likely to change their mind, with 48 per cent saying they might, compared to 52 per cent who are definite.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said:  “The SNP have most reason to be pleased with these new results, which show them maintaining their polling lead two months out from the Holyrood election.

“While Scottish Labour’s constituency vote share has increased slightly compared with three months ago, Labour also look more vulnerable than either the SNP or Reform UK to their voters switching to support other parties.

“With four in ten voters saying they may change their minds, much may still shift once the parties begin their election campaigns later this month.”

The poll also found the NHS was the top issue for voters going into this election, with over half (56 per cent) saying this would sway their vote. Other top issues were cost of living, the economy, immigration and Scottish independence.

On the constitutional question, the split between Yes and No remained neck and neck – putting Yes on 51 per cent and No on 49 per cent.

The SNP's Angus Robertson said: “This is yet another poll that shows Scottish voters are putting their faith in John Swinney’s strong leadership – momentum is firmly with the SNP.”

Labour's deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: “Scotland is being let down by a tired SNP government that can no longer get the basics right. It’s clear that only Scottish Labour can beat the SNP and fix their mess.”