Conservative manifesto ‘may not survive contact with reality’, think tank claims

Russell Findlay’s “costed and credible” manifesto “may not survive contact with reality”, a think tank has said.

The Scottish Conservative leader unveiled his party’s election prospectus at an event in Edinburgh yesterday, calling it the “most detailed plan” it has ever produced.

It includes income tax and business rates cuts, £500 for pensioners and moves to increase NHS funding above inflation.

Findlay said the measures, including tax breaks for low, middle and high earners, would create a “brighter, more prosperous” Scotland.

But the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has raised concerns about the manifesto, saying the new measures proposed in the package would cost around £6billion per year by 2031-32.

David Phillips, IFS head of devolved and local government finance, said the tax cuts and spending increases are equivalent to almost 10 per cent of current forecasts for day-to-day Scottish Government spending in 2031.

And while cuts to disability payments have been raised as a way to pay for around one third of this, there is “significant risk” that the savings would be lower than that set out by the Conservatives.

Meanwhile, the nearly £4bn a year saving from back-off, administration and civil service costs is “very large” in relation to existing budgets, and there is “no evidence” that the plan would not lead to adverse effects on frontline services.

Phillips said: “Taking the entire package of measures together, this may be a costed plan on paper but whether it would survive contact with reality is far from clear.

“Scotland can have lower taxes and higher spending on some services, but giveaways on the scale proposed by the Scottish Conservatives cannot credibly by funded largely through back-office and administrative savings.

“In addition to the cuts to benefits set out in the manifesto, there would likely need to be substantial cutbacks to either the range or quality of some services used by households and businesses too.”

The claims follow prior IFS analysis of the Reform UK manifesto, which was the first to be produced in this election.

It described the self-funding tax cuts proposed in that package as a “mirage” created by a “misunderstanding or misrepresentation” of the devolution settlement.

Voters will go to the polls on 7 May, with 4.2m people registered to vote.

The deadline for registration is 20 April and no overnight count will be held, with the results instead tallied on 8 May.

Current polling suggests the SNP will emerge as the largest party, with Labour and Reform in a battle for second place.

Further manifesto launches are expected in the coming days.