Poll: SNP miss majority but well ahead of nearest rivals

The SNP will miss out on getting a majority but will remain Holyrood’s biggest party, a fresh poll has predicted.

The poll, commissioned by the Diffley Partnership, has the party well ahead on both constituency and regional voting intention, on 35 and 32 per cent respectively.

Reform and Labour are tied on the constituency ballot at 19 per cent each, though Reform is slightly ahead on the list vote, at 18 per cent to Labour’s 17.

The Conservatives are on 11 and 13 per cent on the constituency and list, respectively, while the Scottish Greens are on eight and 11. The Lib Dems poll at eight per cent on both ballots.

A projection based on these numbers put together by the Diffley Partnership calculates this would result in 62 seats for the SNP – considerably ahead of Reform, which would be the second largest party on 19 seats.

Labour would be in third on 18 seats, the Conservatives on 13, the Greens on 10 and the Lib Dems on seven.

Mark Diffley, director of the Diffley Partnership, said: “As the campaign now gets properly underway, this poll suggests that the SNP remain in a strong position, set to return as the largest party in May, but still falling short of a majority. Support for the other parties is broadly dispersed, which means relatively small movements during the campaign could have a meaningful impact on the final seat picture.”

John Swinney has set out his ambition to win a majority of seats at the election, in a bid to use the precedent of 2011 to force a fresh referendum on Scottish independence.

While these results would likely see him remain in post at first minister, they would not provide his mandate to push for a vote on the constitution.

For Scottish Labour, this would be the party’s worst result since devolution – returning even fewer than the 22 seats it won at the last time of asking.

It would represent a significant breakthrough for Reform, whose sole representative in the Scottish Parliament currently is due to a defection from the Conservatives.

Swinney is ranked as the most popular leader of a Scottish party by the poll, with a net favourability of 10 points.

Anas Sarwar, meanwhile, has a net favourability of -25 and Malcolm Offord, Reform’s leader in Scotland, has a net favourability of -15.

However, when asked to choose between leaders when it comes to the office of first minister, 58 per cent of those asked picked Sarwar over Offord in a head-to-head matchup.

But Swinney beat both, with 55 per cent of Scots saying they prefer the incumbent to Sarwar and 65 per cent compared to Offord.

The poll was conducted by Survation, involving 1,000 adults, between 16 and 23 March.