Ashcroft: Swing to SNP in No-voting constituencies

New constituency polling by Lord Ashcroft has suggested there will be a swing to the SNP in constituencies which voted no in the referendum on independence.

In the eight Scottish constituencies polled the SNP were ahead, including Alistair Darling’s Edinburgh South West seat and former Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath seat – the safest Labour seat in Scotland.

Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy is ahead in his constituency by one per cent, but former Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy is predicted to lose Ross, Skye and Lochaber to the SNP.

The only Conservative seat in Scotland, David Mundell’s Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale is a dead heat between the SNP and the sitting MP, in what Lord Ashcroft calls “a very tasty contest”.

Ashcroft’s constituency polling across the UK seems to indicate Labour and Conservatives could be very close on around 272 seats each, with the SNP in a very strong bargaining position.

“As things stand, Labour losses in Scotland could offset their gains from the Tories, leading to something close to a dead heat. This, then, is the battle: can the Conservatives fight back against Labour faster than Labour can fight back against the SNP? It is just as well I never bet on politics,” he said.

Jim Murphy said: “There is no gloss that can be put on these polls. This is bad news for Scottish Labour but great news for the Tories. David Cameron will be rubbing his hands with glee when he sees these polls, because any seat the SNP take from Scottish Labour makes it more likely the Tories will be the largest party across the UK.”

SNP General Election Campaign Director Angus Robertson MP welcomed the polls, but said the party would take nothing for granted. "The most significant aspect of the findings is it confirms that the SNP's surge in support is reflected every bit as much in areas of Scotland which voted No as a well as Yes in the referendum,” he said.

Lord Ashcroft’s previous constituency polling in Scotland looked at seats where there had been a high Yes vote, and showed a swing from Labour to the SNP of around 25 per cent.

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