The SNP's failure to secure a majority should kill off talk of a second referendum

The SNP’s recent spring conference was a strangely muted affair, a one-day get-together where the keynote speech was scheduled to clash with Scotland’s biggest rugby match for a quarter of a century. No doubt aware he was competing for everyone’s attention, John Swinney went for an eye-catching drop goal, announcing a £500m package of childcare provision should his party win the election, although in the ensuing media scrum there was little detail of how it would be paid for. 

Gone are the days when the SNP packed out the Hydro in Glasgow, Nicola Sturgeon striding the stage like a pop star buoyed by the momentum created by the independence referendum. Swinney, who is described by recent focus group attendees as an “interim manager” and a “wet weekend”, clearly does not have that same magnetism. And yet every poll has the SNP easing to another election win in May, albeit on a reduced share of the vote, an incredible achievement for a party which has been in power for almost 20 years.

 In his 30-minute speech to conference the first minister made little more than a passing reference to independence, which he told delegates was now “within our grasp”. Call it confidence, call it delusion, but party members seem to agree. Before Swinney’s address they had unanimously passed a motion calling on the UK Government to prepare for Scottish independence and a time “when it may no longer be able to rely on continuing subsidies from Scotland”. 

Never mind that the SNP currently has no route to another referendum and the government at Westminster has repeatedly ruled one out, the motion’s proposer, Glasgow councillor Norman MacLeod, went Trumpian, arguing Scotland’s only problem following separation will be being too wealthy once we no longer have to surrender our vast natural resources to the rapacious English. While there was plenty of talk of Scotland’s oil among the speakers, there was no mention of the inconvenient truth (at least in that particular debate) that the SNP’s current position is against new drilling in the North Sea. 

Maybe I’m hopelessly naïve, but doesn’t the SNP’s demand for a second referendum have some legitimacy if the party wins a majority on 7 May? Swinney has been up front, arguing a Holyrood majority would give his party an electoral mandate for another vote – just as it did in 2011. I’m not credulous enough to believe Keir Starmer – or his potential successor – will actually listen, but the SNP would have a decent case for arguing that democracy had been denied. Something tells me they would do a good job of creating a sense of grievance out of that. 

But if Swinney fails to win a majority – and most of the polls to date suggest he will – then the prospect of another referendum is dead. Even the most Panglossian of SNP members would have to concede that the UK Government doesn’t need to worry about those preparations they’re so anxious for it carry out. 

It’s clear the matter is not currently a priority for voters. While polls are roughly 50-50 on the matter of Scotland’s constitutional future, the issue features well down a list of issues the public deems most important, behind the NHS, the cost of living, immigration even. According to Ipsos’ recent Scottish Political Monitor, roughly a quarter (24 per cent) of voters see independence as a key issue, although it was ahead of education, social care, taxation and crime. That figure rises to 51 per cent among SNP voters. 

Where does all this leave the SNP? The party has done a fantastic job these past two decades maintaining its position as a party of protest, “standing up for Scotland” against the various policies of UK governments, all while failing in its own responsibilities on education, health and reducing poverty-related inequalities. 

Swinney has pledged to see out a full term as first minister should his party win the election, but he has been unable to shake off his image as a caretaker, a steady if uninspiring hand at the tiller after the buffeting the SNP endured following Sturgeon’s resignation and the short-lived leadership of Humza Yousaf.

When Yousaf stepped aside in April 2024, Swinney was the obvious replacement, but there is no such candidate waiting in the wings this time around. All of the names usually linked with the job – Westminster leader Stephen Flynn, housing secretary Mairi McAllan, health secretary Neil Gray – are still relatively inexperienced and might not actually want it at this point in time.

Hubristically, Swinney has talked of Starmer resigning if the SNP wins big in May. “I don’t think Keir Starmer will be the prime minister if I win a majority,” he told Laura Kuenssberg in an interview earlier this month. He may well right, especially if Labour also has a poor night in Wales. But if Swinney fails to win his majority – and his shot at another vote on independence – perhaps he too should consider his position.