The rise of Robert Jenrick is a sign Britain may indeed be broken

There was a point during the press conference to announce Robert Jenrick’s defection to Reform where Nigel Farage’s soul seemed to leave his body. Ironically it was as his new recruit proclaimed Farage the saviour – the only hope – for “broken Britain”.

Despite pulling off a stunning coup de théâtre by enticing the man many considered to be the next leader of the Conservatives, Farage sat slumped in his chair, the realisation dawning on him perhaps that it might have been better for Reform had Jenrick stayed where he was.

Earlier in the day Jenrick had been kicked out of the Tories after oh-so-clumsily leaving copies of his defection speech lying around for others to read. It was a speech in which he monstered former cabinet colleagues Mel Stride, who he accused of overseeing an “explosion of the welfare bill” and Priti Patel, who was blamed for creating a migration system “that enabled five million migrants to come here”, something Jenrick described as the “greatest failure of any British government in the post-war period”. He went on to question the leadership of Kemi Badenoch. 

I disagree with Jenrick that Britain is 'broken' but if ever there was a sign things are going badly awry, it’s his growing political significance.

“At a recent shadow cabinet, a debate broke out,” Jenrick said. “The question was put to the group: is Britain broken? I said: it’s broken. Almost all said: it’s not broken. And we were told that’s the party line. A few had a third view – it is broken but we can’t say so because the Conservative Party broke it.”

I disagree with Jenrick that Britain is “broken” but if ever there was a sign things are going badly awry, it’s his growing political significance. Once a fairly run-of-the-mill centrist and Remainer, he has been on a rightwards career journey of late, last year complaining he “didn’t see another white face” on a visit to an inner-city area of Birmingham. 

His speech was less a defection, more a pitch to one day become leader of Reform and – he hopes – the country itself. Farage, who increasingly looks to be running a retirement home for clapped-out Tories, must be wondering whether he has misstepped by admitting someone so low on loyalty but big on ambition.

Jenrick’s future had completely overshadowed another Reform press conference, held earlier the same day, to unveil Malcolm Offord as the party’s leader in Scotland. In contrast to his former Conservative Party colleague, Offord found it difficult to get a word in as Farage answered for him and made it clear Reform in Scotland would have only limited amounts of political independence from the party’s leadership in London. 

Offord later struggled with perfectly reasonable questions about whether Reform’s election campaign would include more of the race-baiting deployed in the run-up to last June’s Hamilton by-election. Reading between the lines, the answer is there will be more of it if Farage considers it necessary. 

The party intends to hold a conference in March to unveil more of its parliamentary candidates and begin fleshing out its policy prospectus ahead of the Scottish election on 7 May. If current polling is correct, Reform is on course to do well, with a recent Survation projection putting the party on 18 Holyrood seats – the same number as Labour but a long way behind the SNP on 61.

And yet the rise of Reform comes as an increasing number of Scots back reversing the folly of Brexit, of which Farage was one of the architects. Another poll published earlier this month found nearly three-quarters of voters (73 per cent) are in favour of rejoining the European Union, rising to 80 per cent among the under-35s. 

The importance of closer ties with our European neighbours has recently been illustrated in a way few could have predicted at the time of the Brexit vote a decade ago – the sabre rattling of an increasingly unilateral United States under the leadership of Donald Trump. Even Farage, who described Trump’s re-election in 2024 as “absolutely vital” for world peace, must have been taken aback by his friend’s aggressive pursuit of Greenland – a foreign policy objective few could have predicted. He seems onboard, however, saying the world would a “better, more secure place” if Trump gets his way.

It’s against this backdrop, a world where Trump can invite Vladimir Putin onto a “board of peace” for Gaza, that multilateral global institutions such as Nato and the United Nations look moribund if not already dead.

Britain’s leaders would do well to listen to the warning of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of England, who this week used his speech at Davos to set out a new era of international cooperation where “middle powers” like his own country, the UK, France, Germany and Japan can work together and not have to pledge fealty to Trump, Putin or Xi Jinping. 

Trump, no longer surrounded by the moderating voices of his first administration but by a new generation of sycophantic ideologues such as Stephen Miller and JD Vance, is increasingly a threat to Europe’s security. 

Those who talked up the “Brexit dividend” of closer trade links with the US have been made to look foolish by Trump’s threat to slap tariffs on anyone who opposes his imperialist ambitions in the Arctic.

Just as we should reject the populist rhetoric about “broken Britain”, so too should we reject a future outside of Europe but increasingly within the ambit of an unpredictable and authoritarian United States.