SNP on course to win election while race for second place neck-and-neck

Scottish Labour and Reform UK are neck-and-neck for second place in May’s election, while the SNP remains on course to win the most seats, according to a new poll.

Survation projects that if its polling figures were mirrored in the election, the SNP would win 61 seats – four seats shy of an outright majority – while Labour and Reform would both see 18 MSPs returned.

It also put the Conservatives on 12 seats, the Lib Dems on 11 and the Greens on nine.

The poll comes as three UK party leaders – Keir Starmer, Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch – visit Scotland.

Survation chief executive Damian Lyons Lowe said it put Labour at the lowest level recorded by the pollster, while Reform’s momentum was “stalling”. 

Around a third of voters intend to back the SNP in the constituency vote in May, while 28 per cent of respondents said they would back it on the list.

Meanwhile 19 per cent of people said they would back Reform in constituencies, while 16 per cent intend to vote Labour. On the regional list, both parties were tied on 18 per cent.

The Scottish Conservatives polled at 13 per cent for both constituency and regional votes. 

The Greens were on eight and nine per cent for the constituency and list ballots respectively, while the Lib Dems were on nine and 11, respectively. 

Lyons Lowe said support for the SNP  was “steady” while “opposition to the SNP remains fragmented”. “The net effect is the SNP maintaining a clear lead, now 15 points (+3) on the constituency vote.”

He continued: “Can the SNP win an outright majority on these numbers? Perhaps not. 

“Two factors will moderate how these constituency figures translate into SNP seats. Obviously, regional list votes are allocated proportionally and act as a corrective to first past the post constituency outcomes… Separately, we would also expect tactical voting in constituencies in seats where voters prioritise stopping the SNP or stopping a particular challenger which can further weaken the link between headline vote share and eventual seats.”

SNP leader John Swinney is the most popular Scottish leader with a net approval rating of -4.5. Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay is not far behind on -4.8, though far more people answered “don’t know”. Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar has a net approval rating of -18.

The prime minister, who in the poll received a net approval rating of -46, is north of the border today to highlight investment in clean energy, following the greenlighting of Berwick Bank wind farm yesterday.

He will be joined on a visit to meet manufacturers and workers by energy secretary Ed Miliband and Scottish secretary Douglas Alexander.

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch is in Edinburgh this afternoon to join Scottish leader Russell Findlay and shadow Scottish secretary Andew Bowie.

She will criticise the Scottish Government’s recent budget, saying the next government must “back business, cut welfare and grow the economy”. She is expected to be in the north east tomorrow.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is in Fife, where he is largely expected to confirm the party’s new Scottish leader.

The Survation poll was conducted on between 8-12 January and commissioned by True North Advisors.