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by Louise Wilson
27 April 2021
SNP denied majority and Alba set for breakthrough, poll shows


SNP denied majority and Alba set for breakthrough, poll shows

Alex Salmond’s Alba Party could win a seat in every region according to projections based on the latest Panelbase poll.

Six per cent of respondents said they would back the new party with their list vote.

Meanwhile, the SNP’s share of the regional vote dropped to 36 per cent which, owing to a strong showing in the constituency ballots (45 per cent), could lead to them returning no list MSPs.

The party is projected to win 61 seats – two less than 2016 and four short of an outright majority.

Meanwhile, 10 per cent of voters said they would back the Greens on the list, which could result in 11 seats (up five from 2016), boosting the number of pro-independence MSPs to 80.

Salmond said: “Across Scotland the message of the Alba Party is hitting home. Because the SNP are projected to do so well in the constituency votes this poll shows they have no chance of winning any list seats. 

“Alba are the party that have brought an urgency for independence to this election campaign. This poll shows Alba winning eight seats. However if just a few more independence voters back the SNP in their constituency, then transfer to Alba on the regional list vote, the supermajority could comprise of some 90 pro-independence MSPs in the parliament of 129.”

The poll also suggests the Conservatives would retain their position as the second biggest party in parliament with 20 per of voters backing them in constituencies and 21 per cent on the list, resulting in 24 seats.

Labour are projected to win 20 seats (22 per cent of the vote in the constituency and 18 per cent on the list) and the Lib Dems five seats (eight per cent in constituency and six per cent on the list).

The poll was commissioned by pro-independence blog Scot Goes Pop and polled 1,075 potential voters between 21-26 April.

However, a poll by Survation at the weekend predicted Alba would fail to pick up any seats, polling at just three per cent. Support for other parties was broadly similar to Panelbase.

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