Scottish Election 2026: What happens next?

The winners and losers of the 2026 Scottish Parliament election are expected to be clear by Friday afternoon.

But the question of who will be the next first minister will remain live until the MSPs take their seats. And there’s a fair bit of process to go through.

Parliamentary business is expected to resume in the week starting 11 May, which will include new MSP inductions. The first day of business proper is likely to be on Thursday 14 May, but this is subject to change.

But the first meeting must take place within seven days of the election.

Every MSP must take an oath or affirmation, which can be done in a language of their choice – previous years have seen Scots, Gaelic, French, Urdu and Zimbabwean Shona chosen alongside English – before parliament can appoint the presiding officer and deputy presiding officers.

In the last session, those were Alison Johnstone, supported by Liam McArthur and Annabelle Ewing. Both Johnstone and Ewing have now stood down, meaning change is certain.

That formality must be taken care of before parliament can then nominate the first minister, whose authority must be formally rubber-stamped by the monarch. The candidate doesn’t have to be the leader of the parliament’s largest party, though that has been the precedent so far, and indeed many others have put their names forward for the role, including the heads of smaller parties.

But in fact, any MSP can stand for the top job, so long as they have the support of another parliamentarian. If two or more names are in the hat, a vote must take place.

It’s all supposed to happen within 28 days of the election, but in practice that timeframe is pretty generous – it took just 12 days for Nicola Sturgeon to be re-selected as first minister after the 2021 election.

But we don’t have to look that far back to find our last working example of a first minister election. The most recent was in 2024, when John Swinney succeeded his party colleague Humza Yousaf, who stood down early. And though Swinney was the favourite for the post, three rivals said they wanted it too – Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay, Anas Sarwar of Scottish Labour, and Scottish Liberal Democrat head Alex Cole-Hamilton.

The SNP leader won by 64 votes.

In the event that parliament fails to select a new FM within the time limit – something that has never happened before – then the country would have to head back to the polls for an historic first ‘extraordinary general election’.

After this gruelling campaign, it’s unlikely the newly elected politicians would want to send Scots back to the ballot box so quickly.

Once the FM is named, things are likely to move quickly, with ministerial positions filled and the Scottish Government formed.

On the parliament side, members of the ruling Scottish Parliament Corporate Body must be appointed, and committee places allocated. The make-up of cross-party panels will depend on the numbers in each party bloc.

While it’s expected that the party which wins the largest number of seats will lead the government, that’s not set in stone. The easiest result for any government is to hold a majority, giving it little to do in order to advance its legislative agenda. Minority administration is trickier and requires closer collaboration with one or more other parties, either in a formal coalition or by a looser, issue-by-issue agreement.

We last saw an example of this after the 2021 election, when the Scottish Greens entered government for the first time as junior partners in a deal with the SNP which was known as the Bute House Agreement. But there are other examples too, and indeed Labour governed in a coalition with the Lib Dems at the onset of devolution.

But it all starts with the declaration of that first local result. That’s expected as early as noon on Friday, with counting starting at regional centres from 9am in a daytime count.

Airdrie, where candidates include health secretary Neil Gray, is expected to be the first to declare, with a trickle of other winners following over the next hour and turning into a rush by mid-afternoon.

If estimates are correct, the last result in will be that for the Highlands & Islands region at around 7pm.

But it’s likely that the overall picture will start to emerge in the late afternoon.

Participation levels are likely to be a major factor. Turnout at the last general election was a record low, and in general fewer voters take part in Holyrood contests than their Westminster counterparts. 

The exception to that was in 2021, when turnout reached 63.5 per cent – a record high for the Scottish Parliament. 

It has been suggested that more people will stay at home this time, and if that turns out to be the case then it will have happened against the backdrop of another record. Because more the number of people who are registered to vote has hit a record high, with as many as having 4,320,981 signed up by the week prior to the election.

They have until 10pm tonight to mark their ballot papers.