‘No evidence’ Scottish police numbers are right for the future, watchdogs say

There is “no evidence” that Scotland has the right number of police to deliver an effective service for the future, watchdogs have said.

There are more than 16,550 officers working across the country, and almost 5,930 police staff.

But there is “no evidence” that this is the right level for the future, according to a new analysis.

And while the joint best value audit found there is a “clear vision” for policing and “strong” financial management, it concluded that current performance reporting “cannot show if policing in Scotland is achieving its strategic goals”.

Meanwhile, public confidence in local policing is in decline.

Craig Naylor, His Majesty’s Chief Inspector of Constabulary, said: “Policing must constantly adapt to new forms of crime, evolving societal demands and expectations. The nature of threat, harm and risk has been changing and becoming more complex, moving from communities into homes and online.   

“Much has been achieved since the reform of policing services in 2013. That's included more equal access to specialist resources, better use of technology and an increased focus on equality, diversity, and inclusion.  

“But policing knows it needs to increase scrutiny and delivery of its transformation programmes, as some modernisation plans haven’t been well managed in the past. 

“At a time when the Scottish Government has set a new reform strategy for public services, there is now a real opportunity to effectively deliver the next stage of policing reform and ensure the service continues to improve.”

Naylor’s office completed the analysis with Audit Scotland.

It found significant work undertaken to make Police Scotland an anti-racist, anti-discriminatory organisation.

That comes after ex-chief constable Iain Livingstone said “institutional racism, sexism, misogyny and discrimination exist” within the force.

But workforce planning is said to be “underdeveloped” and modernisation to working practices has been slow.

The report said: “Police Scotland must set out a clear plan for its future workforce in terms of the numbers and skills required to deliver its strategic outcomes, which is aligned to its medium-term financial planning scenarios. Management of current workforce challenges of high levels of absence and officers on modified duties needs to be improved.”

“Outcome-focused” success measures should be set out over the next year, it is recommended, to help track overall impact and pace of change.

Ministers have not formally set a police officer target number since 2016-17 and Police Scotland has cited the government’s policy of no compulsory redundancies as a limitation to workforce planning.

But the report said these “should not stop policing putting forward its case for ensuring an effective workforce for the future”.

Auditor General for Scotland Stephen Boyle said:  “Policing in Scotland has a clear vision and senior leaders who work well together. But there’s more to do, especially around workforce planning and managing absence and officers on modified duties. 

“Crucially, to deliver its vision and the next stage of reform, policing needs to put clear measures of success in place to ensure it can report on whether its goals are being achieved.”

Responding to the report, justice secretary Angela Constance said: “Overall, this is a positive reflection of policing in Scotland with a number of strengths highlighted, including around effective leadership and governance and Police Scotland’s work with partners.

“Public service reform is a priority for the government and we will support Police Scotland to progress its ongoing work in this area. We are investing record funding of more than £1.7bn for policing in 2026-27 to support service improvement and enable Police Scotland to invest in essential infrastructure, technology and to continue delivery of their estates masterplan.”