What is the state of the Lib Dems?

Speaking to Holyrood recently, Scottish Tory Party leader Ruth Davidson said the big story of the General Election “is going to be the Liberal Democrat collapse”. 

“I think it is going to be similar to their 1948 wipe-out or our 1997 wipe-out, it is going to be a huge event,” she added.

Clearly, this is the view of a political rival but it does echo some polling results. Two recent opinion polls have presented conflicting views regarding the outcome of the General Election, with one putting Labour ahead and the other the Conservatives. However, both pointed to poor results for the Lib Dems.

A YouGov poll for The Sun had the Tories on 35 per cent, two points ahead of Labour on 33 per cent. UKIP were on 14 per cent followed by the Greens on seven, with the Liberal Democrats on six.

However, a Survation poll for the Daily Mirror found 34 per cent backed Labour, giving the party a six-point lead over the Conservatives on 28. That survey had UKIP on 19 per cent, with the Lib Dems on 10 and the Greens on four.

In Scotland, polls in eight Scottish constituencies carried out by Lord Ashcroft indicate that six could go to the SNP. Accordingly, the Liberal Democrats could be reduced to a single Scottish seat – in Orkney and Shetland where the Secretary of State Alistair Carmichael is the MP. 

Ashcroft said: “The trend is unmistakeable. Labour have fallen from their peak above 40 per cent to the low thirties, from which the Conservatives have been unable to break free since the middle of 2012. The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, remain well below half their 2010 vote share, and UKIP have fallen back slightly from their peak at the end of last year.

“In other words, the polls are not bringing much joy to anyone except the polling companies’ shareholders. But someone will be Prime Minister after May 7th, and one of the parties will take the lead in forming a government. Over the next nine weeks, the voters must make a decision. That decision will rest on three things: values, policies and personalities.”

In response, the Scottish Liberal Democrats said: “As the election gets nearer people will want to back Scottish Liberal Democrat MPs to support our focus on public services and our plan for more support for the NHS.”

For Craig Harrow, Lib Dem Scottish convener and Scottish vice president, these negative polls provide even more impetus to prove people wrong.

Speaking to Holyrood, he said: “Of course the polls could be improved upon and I am sure that they will. I do think that we will be the comeback kids of the election.  Our oblivion has been predicted before and proved wrong before. To misquote Mark Twain – ‘news of our death has been greatly exaggerated’!

“We remain positive as we have great MPs and candidates who have formidable reputations of getting things done. And, we have achieved in government – raising the tax allowance, increasing employment, tackling the deficit, helping the economy out of recession, increasing pensions and introducing the triple lock, and we have boosted the NHS and delivered more powers and responsibilities of the Scottish Parliament.”

In the Lib Dem’s most recent party political broadcast, leader Nick Clegg is keen to stress the importance of family and community. 

He said: “We want to talk to you about what we can do for you, and for your family, in your street, in your community. So that together we can build a stronger economy and a fairer society, where everybody has the opportunity to get on in life. 

“And about how we will stand up to the Labour and Conservative parties when they go too far, just as we have done in this government. That’s why we will cut less than the Conservatives and borrow less than Labour. All across the country in streets like yours, Liberal Democrats are campaigning to make your lives better.

“Whether its local campaigners who want to fix your roads, or protect your local health services or keep your local libraries open. Or Liberal Democrats in government, nationally, fixing the economy, cutting your taxes and creating more apprenticeships than ever before.

“So we ask you to open your doors to us, so that we can hear what you have to say and we can make a difference.” 

Harrow believes the Liberal Democrat Party is “hugely resilient”.

He said: “I am old enough to remember when the party polling was so low it was recorded as an asterisk. Liberals are by nature optimistic folk – and hugely resilient. In every seat that we hold we are getting a great response on the doorstep. And, I think we can hold every one of our seats. 

“Our party is made up of strong, often bloody minded folk – who just love battling against the odds. We are told time and again that we are finished, a busted flush, but much to the annoyance of our opponents, we re-emerge. 

“The need for a liberal party has never been clearer – and ill-liberal measures like stop and search, armed police deployed without adequate consultation or support and now an attempt at an ID database gave all right thinking liberals cause for concern. Liberal Democrats will continue to be at the heart of the debate against such measures.

“We have the SNP pulling power to Edinburgh rather than empowering communities. They say they are committed to localism but have systematically taken powers away from communities and centralised them. Liberal Democrats will continue to fight the Holyrood power grab and the short-changing of so many communities.”

It is well acknowledged that the party has suffered from its coalition with the Conservatives but since campaigning has started in earnest, the Lib Dems have been keen to distance themselves from their Westminster bedfellows. With the referendum still resonating across the UK political world, Scotland remains a big issue in this election.

Harrow said: “Despite losing the key issue that everyone knows the SNP are obsessed by – independence – they have undoubtedly been energised by the referendum. There is no doubt they had a post-referendum plan too.

“But what I hear on the doorsteps is that folk don’t want a rerun of the referendum and the constant grievance girning. They want the SNP Government to do its day job – what it’s paid to do – and focus the energy there. 

“People tell me they think that the SNP have taken their eye off the ball during the last two years with poorer NHS results, increasing police powers and creeping centralisation while they have been banging the drum for independence. This is so true of the NHS, where they are shy of A&E waiting-times targets and have a record on mental health treatment-time targets that they can’t possibly be proud of.”

The Scottish party is led by Willie Rennie and while the MSP team at Holyrood might be small, they have proved they have teeth on issues such as policing and the recent debate around ID databases.

A few weeks ago, the Scottish Government was forced to reiterate its opposition to ID cards after fears were expressed that plans to open up some details in NHS records to other public services would lead to their introduction by the back door. 

MSPs debated matters in parliament, weeks after a government consultation closed. No new database would be created under the plans but sharing information would help trace missing people, assist access to services and help HMRC complete the tax register. The proposals required only the approval of a Holyrood committee, but thanks to the Liberal Democrats, a motion was tabled which called for the plans to be scrutinised in primary legislation.

Rennie said the SNP had “taken their eye off the ball” while the civil service had drawn up the plans. Calling for cross-party support, he said: “The SNP joined us in 2005 to oppose the creation of ID cards. The Conservatives supported our efforts to repeal the legislation. And Scottish Labour have supported our motion against this proposal.

“Liberals in all political parties and none have a healthy suspicion of governments’ voracious appetite for information on us, and on every individual. Information is a powerful tool and used in the right way can help us but if misused can be intrusive and sometimes even dangerous.”

However, following the debate MSPs voted narrowly against the Lib Dem motion.

Undoubtedly, this will be debated further at the party’s conference in Aberdeen this weekend. As we reach the final few weeks of the General Election campaign, what will be the main messages to come out of the conference?

Harrow’s opinion is clear:“Firstly, don’t write us off before a single vote is cast. And our messages are simple: taxes down, pensions up, more jobs, better healthcare in a stronger Scotland.”