Why the Scottish Parliament's 'gender stuff' isn't over yet

I don’t know how many times someone has told me they’re sick of the ‘gender stuff’.

I’ve heard it on the school run, at social events and, crucially, in conversations with politicians and party activists of various hues over the past five years.

And I heard it on the street when talking to voters in Renfrewshire North and Cardonald for this latest edition of Holyrood, in fact. 

As policy announcements go, the move to introduce a system of self-ID for trans people through the Gender Recognition Reform (GRR) Bill proved to be a blockbuster drama, earning no shortage of headlines.

But for every individual dedicated to its achievement there was another against, and yet more who just wished the agenda would move on. Those in the latter group won’t want to hold their breath, given recent polling that suggests the subject will be back in the next parliament.

Polls published this month suggest that either the SNP is on course for a majority, with the Greens increasing their numbers to 11, or it’s a minority SNP bloc with the Greens as the second party on 17 seats. 

If the latter proves correct, it will give Ross Greer, Gillian Mackay and their group a hell of a lot of sway. If the former is true, then the SNP is largely unfettered in pursuit of its legislative agenda. 

But if either is right, the likelihood is that gender will be back, baby – not that it’s ever really gone away. That’s because both of those parties have said they want to ban LGBTQ+ conversion practices in the next parliament – a process that is likely to reopen fissures in the body politic over self-identification and the meaning of ‘woman’ and ‘man’ – and they’ll have the numbers do to so.

If this rings a bell, it’s because it was considered during the last parliament, too. In fact, it was one of the pledges made by the SNP when it entered into the power-sharing Bute House Agreement with the Greens in 2021. 

When the plan was dropped a year ago – with the government saying legal complexity was such that a ban couldn’t be achieved before the election – the move was interpreted as a step rightwards on the issue, even though ministers said they would work with their UK counterparts on a cross-border solution. Kaukab Stewart, Scottish equalities minister, said a new SNP government would consider introducing its own bill if that failed.

A conversion therapy ban is of course not the same as the GRR Bill. But it covers similar territory, and if experience has taught us anything, it’s that this is bumpy ground.

In restating that commitment at the final First Minister’s Questions of the session, John Swinney has given hope to those seeking stronger protections for LGBTQ+ people. But in a parliament in which consensus will be hard-fought, turning that hope into a reality will be no easy feat.

After all, Reform UK – still likely to be a notable presence in the parliament – opposes self-ID and all things “woke”. And Scottish Labour – still fighting for the keys to Bute House despite what polls say – may have initially whipped its members to vote for the GRR Bill, but it has since rowed back on its support for gender reforms.

The Tories may indeed look blue, with predictions of a serious drubbing, but they too are unlikely to give fulsome  support to a quick law change on the matter, given their steadfast opposition to self-ID.

it’s not hard to envisage a real culture war between the Greens and Reform

Add to this the prospect that May’s winners will include the first trans and non-binary MSPs. 

The Greens are standing the most gender-diverse field of candidates on offer this time around, and their election would add another dimension to the gender discourse, allowing one or more serving parliamentarians to draw personal experience into the mix; to personalise a subject which for some remains stubbornly abstract, despite its many implications for public and private life. 

At the most basic level, it’s hard to imagine that argument over the estate’s toilets won’t erupt again, at least.

One of the great unknowns for this next parliament is what alliances and agreements are forced into being. They might all dismiss each other now, but once the votes are counted and those 129 seats laid out, rival parties may look less like foes and more like tolerable workmates. That will have an impact in the chamber, and also at committee level, where MSPs will simply have to cooperate with each other to get things done.

Still, it’s not hard to envisage a real culture war between the Greens and Reform on this, amongst other matters. It might be good news for popcorn vendors, but it’s unlikely to lead us away from the fractured, factional politics that marked the last session.

We’re now a year on from the Supreme Court ruling that found that ‘sex’ means biology under the terms of the overarching Equality Act. 

gender and identity issues are unfinished business

That decision followed a legal challenge brought by campaign group For Women Scotland, and the veto by the UK Government of the GRR Bill under that same piece of reserved legislation.

Anyone who thought the court ruling might be the end of it has been proven wrong, because the definition of ‘woman’ and ‘man’ remains live for the many who consider that verdict less than final, and seek a change of law instead. Meanwhile, guidance on prisons has seen FWS take the government to court again.

Again and again, politicians and activists have told me that the ‘trans debate’ seldom comes up on the doorsteps. It’s certainly not a leading issue in this election – all the research we have says it’s about the economy, stupid, not to mention the health service.

But gender and identity issues are unfinished business. Rather than petering out, this issue may come to dominate yet another session.