Subscribe to Holyrood updates

Newsletter sign-up


Follow us

Scotland’s fortnightly political & current affairs magazine


Subscribe to Holyrood
by Staff reporter
20 January 2023
SNP support ‘well below’ half of voters

SNP support ‘well below’ half of voters

SNP support is “well below” the 50 per cent it desires if it hopes to make the next general election a de facto referendum, new polling has indicated.

While still outpolling other parties, the Survation survey published by advisory firm True North put support for the SNP at 43 per cent at a Westminster election.

Labour was second on 29 per cent, followed by the Conservatives on 18 and the Lib Dems on seven.

Meanwhile, support for Scottish independence has fallen since December, where it spiked following the Supreme Court’s ruling that Holyrood could not legislation for a second referendum.

According to this poll, the No side is back ahead – with 54 per cent backing the Union and 46 per cent saying they would vote for independence.

Polling expert Professor John Curtice said: “The poll suggests that, at 43 per cent, support for the SNP would be well below the 50 per cent mark that Nicola Sturgeon would like to surpass at the next general election – though it also suggests that, at present, fewer than half would vote for pro-independence parties in a Holyrood ballot too.”

The poll for a Scottish Parliament election put the SNP on 46 per cent for the constituency vote and 33 per cent on the list.

Labour support was 27 per cent for constituency and 25 on the list; Conservatives were 17 per cent and 18 per cent; Lib Dems were on eight per cent for both.

The Scottish Greens polled at 12 per cent in the list (they were not included in the constituency poll).

The poll also asked how respondents would vote if the next general election was a de facto referendum.

Curtice added: “There is no evidence in the poll that fighting the next election as a de facto referendum would reduce the level of SNP support. Rather, slightly more voters (45 per cent) say that they would vote for the SNP in that circumstance.

“In truth, if the SNP are going to win over 50 per cent of the vote in either kind of election, the party will need first to persuade more people of the case for independence.”

However, the poll also revealed dissatisfaction with both of Scotland’s governments.

Nearly half (49 per cent) said the Scottish Government “does not have the right policies in place to deliver Scotland's economic prosperity”.

A clear majority (61 per cent) said the same of the UK Government.

Holyrood Newsletters

Holyrood provides comprehensive coverage of Scottish politics, offering award-winning reporting and analysis: Subscribe

Read the most recent article written by Staff reporter - Digital Health and Care Awards celebrate Scottish technology expertise.

Get award-winning journalism delivered straight to your inbox

Get award-winning journalism delivered straight to your inbox


Popular reads
Back to top