More Scots set to vote for SNP as Reform challenge rises, poll shows

The SNP is still on track to take the most votes in next year's Scottish Parliament elections, according to new polling.

Polling carried out by Survation for the Diffley Partnership also reveals the growing challenge from Reform UK.

It puts John Swinney's party on 36 per cent in the constituency vote and 28 per cent on the list.

In contrast, Anas Sarwar's Labour is at 22 per cent for both ballots. 

A total of 14 per cent said they were thinking of choosing Reform in the constituency contest - putting it one per cent ahead of Russell Findlay's Conservatives.

The party is also polling higher than the Lib Dems and the Greens, while the figures suggest Alba will struggle come polling day.

More than 1000 Scots were asked about their voting intentions between April 16 and 22.

Scott Edgar, senior research manager at Diffley Partnership said: "With the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections just a year away, this poll shows the SNP are in pole position to remain the largest party at Holyrood come next May.

"Despite Labour's efforts in recent months, they have yet to make significant inroads into the SNP's lead.

"Meanwhile, Reform UK's polling performance indicates that they will be a force to be reckoned with at next year’s election.

"As the election approaches, all parties will be looking to seize the narrative, clearly articulate their vision, and make a compelling pitch to voters in what promises to be one of the most consequential elections since devolution."

At 16 per cent, the Tories are still polling higher than Reform on the regional list, where the newer party is picking up 12 per cent of support.

Alex Cole-Hamilton's Lib Dems are at nine per cent in both categories, while the Scottish Greens, who are soon to elect new leadership, are polling at five per cent for the constituency contest and 10 per cent on the list.

Meanwhile Alba, which is now led by Kenny MacAskill, is standing at one per cent in the constituency vote and two per cent on the list.

Asked about Westminster voting intention, 33 per cent said they would back the SNP, 24 per cent would opt for Labour, 15 per cent said Reform and 14 per cent said Conservative.

And deep division on the independence question remains. Questioned on how they would vote in a referendum on the matter, 49 per cent said they would choose Yes, while 51 per cent would back No.