SNP in lead as Reform gains ground and Labour sees sharp dip, according to poll

The SNP remains in the lead ahead of the Scottish Parliament election in May, with Reform’s support on the rise, while Scottish Labour’s support has declined, according to new polling.  

Research by Ipsos Scotland for STV News has suggested that the SNP will command 35 per cent of the constituency vote.  

John Swinney’s party have a 17-point lead on Reform, which is polling at 18 per cent – an increase of four points since June.  

Scottish Labour has seen a sharp fall in its support, dropping seven points in the same period to 16 per cent.  

Support on the regional list has the SNP at 28 per cent, 10 points ahead of Scottish Labour. 

The Scottish Greens and Reform are tied on 17 per cent, trailed by the Scottish Conservatives on 12 per cent.   

The polling company surveyed 1,061 adults between 27 November and 3 December. 

Projections place the SNP on 60 seats – five off the majority Swinney says he needs to make the case to the UK Government for a second independence referendum.  

Labour would be the second largest party on 19, closely followed by Reform and the Greens on 17. 

The Conservatives would be reduced to 11, and the Scottish Liberal Democrats would return five MSPs. 

Healthcare and the NHS were found to bethe number one priority for 57 per cent of voters ahead of the election. Inflation and the cost of living follow on 41 per cent, while immigration is 30 per cent, having previously not featured in the top 10 issues in June.  

None of the leaders asked about in the poll rated positively overall with the public. 

Swinney is the least poorly rated, with 35 per cent saying they are satisfied, and 49 per cent saying they are dissatisfied with his performance, giving him a net satisfaction rating of -14. 

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar's approval ratings have fallen, with just 23 per cent satisfied and 51 per cent dissatisfied - a net rating of -28.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer's net approval rating with the Scottish public has fallen to -63, while Reform UK leader Nigel Farage's dissatisfaction rating has also fallen from 54 per cent in June to 61 per cent. 

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said: “Five months out from the next Holyrood elections, these new results show the SNP out in front and holding onto their core voters more successfully than other parties – although with a lower share of the vote than the party achieved at the last Scottish Parliament elections.  

“Reform UK’s vote share in Scotland has continued to improve in spite of Nigel Farage rather than because of him, with a rise in public dissatisfaction with his performance as leader.”