Reform surges ahead of Labour in new poll as SNP maintains lead

Reform UK has a five-point lead over Scottish Labour, according to new polling ahead of the Scottish Parliament election in May.  

The polling by YouGov suggests that the SNP will be the largest party by some distance, with 34 per cent of voters planning to back the party on the constituency vote and 29 per cent on the list.  

This represents a 14-point decrease on the constituency vote and is 11 per cent less on the list vote than the 2011 election for the party of government.  

Meanwhile, 20 per cent of voters back Reform on the constituency and the list, while Scottish Labour is on 15 per cent. This would be the party’s worst performance at an election at Holyrood or Westminster in over 110 years.  

Earlier this month, polling by Survation had the two parties neck-and-neck less than four months away from the election.  

According to YouGov, the Scottish Conservatives are backed by just 10 per cent of voters on the constituency vote, and 11 per cent on the list, while the Scottish Greens, which is on track for its best results at Holyrood, is supported by nine per cent on the constituency and 12 per cent on the list.  

The Scottish Liberal Democrats are also polling higher than in 2021, with 10 per cent in the constituency vote and nine per cent on the list, gains of three and four points respectively.  

Seat projection by pollster Professor John Curtice suggests the SNP would return 60 MSPs, Reform 23, Labour 15, the Conservatives 13, the Greens 10, and the Lib Dems eight.  

This seat projection would fall five short of the majority of seats John Swinney says he needs to make the case to the UK Government for a second independence referendum. If projections are correct, there would still be a majority of pro-independence seats during the next parliament.  

The poll also found that only one in 10 Scots approve of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s record in government.  

It also found that a majority of voters disapprove of the SNP’s time in government. However, a considerably larger portion disapproves of the UK Government.   

Green co-leaders Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay lead the favourability ratings, with –15 and –14, respectively. However, a majority of voters answered ‘don’t know’ for both.  

Swinney’s favourability rating is –17, while Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar is on –34, and Keir Starmer is -57. 

The most important issues facing Scots are the economy, health, and immigration.  

YouGov polled 1,113 people living in Scotland between January 8 and January 14. 

Commenting on the poll, Keith Brown, depute leader of the SNP, said: “The poll shows that momentum is with the SNP as the only party which offers trusted leadership and puts their priorities first while Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is distracted by a bitter civil war. 

“Under John Swinney’s leadership our NHS has started to turn a corner and Scots continue to receive the best cost of living support in the UK - that’s what the relentless focus of John Swinney on the priorities of the people of Scotland brings.

“Anas Sarwar bent over backwards to defend every disastrous decision Keir Starmer made - what you see with the London boss is exactly what you get with the branch manager.”