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by Staff Reporter
28 May 2024
Poll: Scottish Labour on course to win most seats with four-point lead over SNP

Alamy

Poll: Scottish Labour on course to win most seats with four-point lead over SNP

Labour is on course to win the most Scottish seats in the upcoming general election after a new poll put it six points ahead of the SNP.

The poll, conducted by Survation, found 36 per cent of Scottish voters intend to back Labour compared to 32 per cent who say they will back the SNP.

It is the latest in a series of polls putting Keir Starmer’s party ahead, with a Savanta poll giving the party a four-point lead and YouGov a 10-point lead earlier this month.

Polling expert Professor John Curtice said this means the SNP could suffer “severe losses” in July. It currently holds 43 of Scotland’s 59 seats.

The Survation poll put Scottish Conservative support at 17 per cent, the Lib Dems on nine per cent and six per cent of voters said another party.

Modelling based on this polling suggests this would see 28 Scottish Labour MPs elected, up from two currently and just shy of a majority of seats in Scotland (where the total has been reduced from 59 to 57 following recent boundary changes).

The number of SNP MPs would drop to 16, while eight Scottish Tory MPs and five Scottish Lib Dem MPs would also be returned, according to projections.

Curtice said: “Labour now have a clear lead in Westminster vote intentions for the first time since the 2014 independence referendum.

“As the general election campaign gets under way, the SNP face the prospect of severe losses at the beginning of July, and thus the possible loss of its coveted status as the third-largest party at Westminster.

“The party badly needs to try and persuade Yes supporters to return to the party fold.”

The same poll found the country remains split on Scottish independence, with 45 per cent backing it and 55 per cent saying they’d vote ‘no’ in a referendum.

On voting intention for the Scottish Parliament, Labour and the SNP are neck and neck. Just shy of a third of voters said they would back each party on the constituency vote, while Labour is slightly ahead (33 per cent) of the SNP (29 per cent) on the list vote.

The Conservatives polled at 17 per cent for the constituency vote and 15 per cent for the regional vote, the Lib Dems on nine and 10 per cent, and the Greens on five and eight per cent.

The poll, conducted on behalf of lobbying firm True North, also found that Starmer was the most popular leader in Scotland. He is the only leader to receive a net positive favourability score, with his rating sitting at three per cent.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has a net favourability score of -3, followed by John Swinney on -7.

Douglas Ross scored -22 while Rishi Sunak was the least popular political leader in Scotland, scoring -38.

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