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by Ruaraidh Gilmour
10 May 2024
Labour leads SNP at both Westminster and Holyrood, according to poll

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar | Alamy

Labour leads SNP at both Westminster and Holyrood, according to poll

Scottish Labour are set to return as the largest party in both Holyrood and Westminster, according to a new poll.  

The poll carried out by Savanta for the Scotsman suggests the SNP under John Swinney face a “major uphill battle” at the next general and Scottish Parliament elections.  

At Westminster, Labour’s share of the vote has risen by two points to 37 per cent, and according to Savanta’s modelling is on course to increase their Scottish MPs from two to 28 – one shy of a majority of seats North of the border. 

It suggests that the SNP are down two points to 33 per cent and could be set to lose 25 seats at the general election, leaving them with only 18 seats. 

At Holyrood, it projects that the SNP’s regional list vote has fallen by two per cent to 26 per cent, while Labour has risen to 32 per cent – an increase of three percentage points. 

The poll also shows that the SNP have lost two percentage points of the share of constituency votes, while Labour have gained two. This puts both parties at 35 per cent.  

Savanta suggest this shift towards Labour at Holyrood would mean SNP seats could fall to 35 from 63, while Labour could expect to gain 25 seats, elevating them to 47 seats.  

It also polled people voting intention on Scottish independence and found that the yes vote has fallen from 45 to 44 per cent, while no has risen a point to 48 per cent. There is seven per cent still undecided. 

Responses were gathered between 3 and 8 May, meaning some people were asked their voting intentions before Swinney became the new SNP leader though after he had launched his leadership campaign.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, told the Scotsman: “This is the first time ever that Savanta’s research has shown a Labour lead over the SNP for Westminster voting intention. Our findings really do underline the major uphill task that John Swinney faces as the new First Minister. 

“While our research suggests that the SNP continues to have a solid base, they’re likely to fall quite far from the 43 seats they currently hold at the next general election – as things stand. Even if Swinney can begin to turn things around, the spectre of Sturgeon and everything her time in power is now associated with will continue to hang over the party and hamper any recovery." 

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