Poll puts Tories well ahead of Labour in Scotland

Ballot box - Image credit: Press Association

A Scottish opinion poll has put the Conservatives well ahead of Labour and closing in on the SNP.

The BMG poll for The Herald puts the SNP on 43 per cent, the same as an Ipsos MORI poll for STV published earlier this week.

But the BMG poll has the Scottish Conservatives on 30 per cent and Scottish Labour on 18 per cent.

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This is a marked difference from the Ipsos MORI poll, which placed them neck and neck, both on 25 per cent.

The Lib Dems are predicted to be on five per cent, the Greens on two per cent and others on one per cent.

However, the BMG poll of 1,000 Scots was conducted two weeks ago, between 12 and 18 May, before the Ipsos MORI poll, which was carried out between 22 and 27 May.

This was also before the Conservative manifesto was launched on 18 May, after which Labour has been closing the gap on the Conservatives in successive UK opinion polls.

Translated into seats using the Weber Shandwick ScotlandVotes seat predictor, the BMG poll results could mean the SNP losing eight seats, with seven of them gained by the Conservatives and one by the Lib Dems.

This would give the SNP 48 seats, the Conservatives eight, Lib Dems two and Labour one.

Among the high profile figures who could be under threat are SNP deputy leader Angus Robertson and Perthshire MP Pete Wishart.

The seat calculator suggests Aberdeen South; West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine; Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk; Dumfries and Galloway; Moray; Perth and North Perthshire and East Renfrewshire could turn blue.

It could also mean former Liberal Democrat minister Jo Swinson taking back East Dunbartonshire from the SNP.

Commenting on The Herald poll, SNP election campaign manager Derek Mackay said: “This poll was taken over two weeks ago – but like all other polls, it shows that only a vote for the SNP can keep the Tories out.

“Labour can’t win the election in Scotland – and a vote for them just risks letting a Tory MP in the back door.

“Now, more than ever, it is vital to have strong SNP voices standing up for Scotland at Westminster.”