No evidence of ‘Burnham bounce’ in Scotland despite PM being most popular leader in Scotland

Andy Burnham has become the most popular political leader in Scotland but this has not led an electoral bounce for Scottish Labour, a new poll has found.

The poll undertaken for the Diffley Partnership found over a third of Scots (37 per cent) had a favourable opinion of the new prime minister, compared to 28 per cent who view him unfavourably.

This gave him a net positive favourability rating of nine – easily the best of all Scotland’s leaders. John Swinney was the second most favoured with a net rating of -6.

Yet the poll found Burnham’s popularity had little impact on his party north of the border, with the number of people saying they would vote Scottish Labour in a UK general election remaining largely the same as earlier this year.

The SNP look set to win such a race, with 34 per cent of people saying they would back the Nationalists and just 19 per cent saying they would vote Labour.

Mark Diffley, director of the Diffley Partnership, said: “Andy Burnham has made a good early impression on Scottish voters. He is the only political leader tested in this survey to record a positive favourability rating and is viewed as the best option for prime minister by a clear plurality of voters.

“However, the polling also suggests that Burnham’s personal popularity has not yet translated into additional support for Scottish Labour. While Labour has seen some encouraging signs elsewhere in Britain, the party’s position in Scotland appears largely unchanged, with the SNP continuing to hold a substantial lead.”

Other polls indicate that Burnham’s takeover has had a positive impact on Labour polling across the UK, with the party closing the gap with Reform which had been in the lead over several months.

This poll also found voters believed Burnham has improved Labour’s electoral prospects, with 46 per cent agreeing the party now had a better chance of winning a UK-wide general election.

In terms of the other parties, Reform has seen a slight fall in support (-4 percentage points) from earlier in the year, putting it in third place behind Labour at 18 per cent. The Conservatives were in fourth on 11 per cent, a slight improvement.

The SNP also remains in the lead in Scottish Parliament voting intention. Of those likely to vote, 37 per cent said they’d back the party in the constituency and 28 per cent on the list.

Reform would win 18 per cent of the constituency vote and 16 per cent of the list vote, while Labour would win 17 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively.

Meanwhile, the poll also found a low amount of awareness of the ongoing Scottish Labour leadership contest.

MSPs Michael Marra and Joe Fagan are competing to succeed Anas Sarwar, who last month resigned so he could enter the Lords and become a UK Government minister.

But half of people polled said they had heard “not very much” about the race and 22 per cent said they knew nothing at all about it.

When asked who would make the best leader, a majority (55 per cent) said they did not know.

On Scottish independence, 52 per cent of people said they would back it while 48 per cent said they’d vote no in a referendum.