Lack of ‘just transition’ progress risks Grangemouth repeat, expert commission reports

Progress in Scotland’s just transition away from polluting industry to greener alternatives is “falling short of what is needed”, a report claims.

The Just Transition Commission scrutinises and advises on Scottish Government attempts to rebalance the economy and reach net zero, minimising climate change.

In its final report, published today, the independent expert body warns of shock job losses and deindustrialisation ahead, following on from recent closure moves by Ineos at Grangemouth and ExxonMobil at Mossmorran.

It states: “Our current trajectory exposes us to further repeats of the unplanned-for closures at Grangemouth and Mossmorran.

“There is no just path to net zero through deindustrialisation. Our current path risks an economy with minimal manufacturing, an overreliance on imports, and the further dwindling of the already diminished industrial base and the skilled workforce we need to deliver a prosperous transition.”

Titled No Time to Lose, the report will launch at the University of the Highlands and Islands in Thurso. It states that just transition is only achievable with a “significant acceleration of progress”.

Amongst its recommendations is enhanced funding for colleges as a “critical strategic asset in the transition to a low carbon economy”, the commission said.

Its co-chair Professor Dave Reay, chair in carbon management and education at the University of Edinburgh, said: “Our message today is clear: we can still make this transition in a way that truly benefits Scotland’s people and places. But right now, we are not on track. We’ve heard it in church halls, on ferries between remote islands, on buses in Dundee, at major industrial sites and vast peat bogs. Government needs to do much more. That starts by implementing the realistic and practical recommendations in today’s report.”

The report calls for a “credible” joint plan from the Scottish and UK governments for the North Sea workforce, including those in ancillary roles like catering, more community involvement in forestry development, and a new skills strategy to connect with women, ethnic minorities and people with disabilities.

Just transition conditions should be attached to Scottish Government grants, tax incentives, loans and leasing agreements, it is claimed.

The commission said: “The cost-of-living crisis Scotland has experienced since Covid has been largely driven by high fossil gas prices, with the marginal pricing of energy limiting the positive effect the expansion of renewable supply could otherwise have in reducing fuel poverty and lowering electricity costs for households and industries. In Scotland we have seen stagnation in progress over the past decade in reducing both absolute child poverty and inequality, while fuel poverty has sharply increased in the last few years.

“A business-as-usual scenario risks building a country where people continue to live in some of Europe’s leakiest buildings, and endure high levels of fuel poverty, deepening job insecurity and in-work poverty, and the undermining of efforts to reduce child poverty. It risks worsening rural depopulation at precisely the moment that we need to ensure communities in rural and island areas have the services and support they need to deliver much of the infrastructure and new forms of economic activity that will underpin the transition and its economic up-sides for all of Scotland.”

The development comes the day after Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes announced further support for Mossmorran workers facing redundancy. 

The Scottish Government-funded initiative, delivered by Fife College, will see direct employees and contractors receive individual assessments of their training needs and efforts made to match them with opportunities.

About 350 staff are at risk of redundancy following the decision to close the plant.

Forbes said: “Most of the workers affected by ExxonMobil’s closure are engineers and technical staff and the loss of those vital skills would not only be damaging to the Fife region but to Scotland’s national economy.  

“Given the urgency of the situation, the Scottish Government’s focus is now firmly on ensuring those workers have a future that is secure and prosperous.  

“We have acted swiftly and decisively. I once again urge the UK Government to follow our lead, match our support and help deliver a just transition for Mossmorran.”