John Swinney says SNP will ‘win big’ in 2026 as new independence strategy agreed

John Swinney has claimed the SNP will “win big” in next year’s election as his party backed his latest strategy for gaining Scottish independence. 

The first minister said it was a “disgrace” that a parliament with a pro-independence majority was not enough to secure a fresh referendum.

But he pledged to “beat” politicians at Westminster at “their own game”, adding: “They say a one-party majority is needed for this and I say, challenge accepted by the SNP.”

The strategy was the subject of a two-hour long debate at the party’s conference in Aberdeen. 

Several members spoke in support of amendments that would see that party adopt a strategy that meant any vote for a pro-independence party for 2026 was a vote for independence.

But presenting his motion to delegates, Swinney said the SNP had a “duty” to provide a “credible plan” to delivery independence.

He said the party must go into the 2026 Scottish Parliament election with a “clear, simple and unambiguous message”, in that “only a vote for the SNP” would result in another referendum, which he argued was the only way to secure independence.

Swinney said the SNP was “not just going to win, we are going to win big” next year. 

“When the SNP win a majority, we deliver a referendum on independence. We did it in 2011 and I want us to do it in 2026,” he added.

His stance was supported by deputy first minister Kate Forbes, depute leader Keith Brown and MP Stephen Gethins.

However, many of the grassroots members were unhappy with the proposal, questioning the idea that the UK Government would grant a section 30 order if the SNP does get at least 65 seats.

One amendment argued that a pro-independence majority – including the SNP and any other pro-indy party – would be enough to “negotiate independence”.

Derek Pretswell, a member of the Oban and Lorn branch which sponsored the amendment, said that next year “every vote counts” and he added that support for independence was “not confined to this party”.

Former MP Tommy Sheppard also spoke in favour of that amendment, saying: “There are no quick fixes, we have been chasing the next election for far too long. We need a strategy that that goes up to 2031, to leave every contest stronger than we went into.” 

A second amendment also sought to widen the scope to all pro-independence parties and candidates, with backer David Gilchrist saying the party “cannot guarantee” winning a majority. He added: “Let’s not alienate crucial voters who support other parties but have never lost faith in independence.”

Both those amendments were voted down, with Swinney’s strategy being agreed. 

It said: “Conference therefore endorses an approach to the SNP’s 2026 campaign designed to deliver a mandate that cannot be contested or rejected, which will include… a clear target therefore of repeating the 2011 achievement of securing an SNP majority in the election, with at least 65 SNP MSPs, as the only uncontested way to deliver a new vote on Scotland’s future.

“We will therefore ask people to vote SNP in the constituency vote to deliver an SNP government and to vote SNP in the regional list to deliver an SNP majority and an independence referendum.”

Two amendments to Swinney’s motion were accepted, however, which reiterated support for EU membership and urging the party to work “across political boundaries” to convince voters who are “sympathetic and supportive of independence, but are not yet SNP supporters”.

Speaking to the media following the motion, depute leader of the party Keith Brown said he had spoken with a number of activists - except from Graeme McCormick, who brought forward one of the amendmenrs that fell and likened Swinney's plan as “a donkey” - that were in favour of counting any vote for a pro-independence party for 2026 as a vote for independence.

Brown said those party members had told him they “were completely behind John Swinney's resolution” in the event of the amendments falling.

“I think the party is entirely behind what John has done,” Brown said. “I think the conference gave a pretty strong opinion. It's a very strong strategy for the party, and that's pretty self-evident from the vote.”