Scottish Elections 2026: Seats to look out for

Polling by More in Common in the last two weeks has suggested that half of the constituencies in the Scottish Parliament election are on a knife-edge.  

With that in mind, here are some of the seats to keep an eye out for this afternoon, which could offer insight into how well the parties may do.

The first declarations are expected to be at 12pm, however, Holyrood has been told they could come earlier.

Airdrie

This is the first seat that is expected to be declared. It is also one to keep an eye on because it is being contested by the health secretary, Neil Gray.  

Most polling suggests that the SNP will win this seat, however, Survation’s final MRP poll, which was published on Wednesday, suggested this seat is a three-horse race between the SNP, Labour, and Reform. It projected that Reform would win the seat with 31.6 per cent of the vote, just 0.7 per cent ahead of the SNP and Labour within five points.  

If the SNP were to lose this seat, it may suggest that other central belt seats could go in a similar fashion.  

Edinburgh Central  

This is another seat the SNP will want to keep a hold of, not least because it was won by Angus Robertson in 2021. But it has since been subject to boundary changes, which have turned it into a three-horse race between the SNP, the Greens, and Labour.

The Greens seem confident they can win this seat, and that has been reflected in some polling, however, Survation’s MRP poll projected Labour. It could be a close one.  

Eastwood

This is again a consequential seat for the SNP, with Kirsten Oswald hoping to turn the seat yellow for the first time since devolution.  

But it is more consequential for the Conservatives. That’s because a win for Jackson Carlaw, who has held the seat since 2016, would likely mean there would be no place for party leader Russell Findlay through the regional list.  

Banffshire and Buchan Coast

If Reform is to take a constituency, the north east is its best bet. Oil and gas are on the minds of voters in this region, and Reform’s stance on licensing may be enough to cause a surprise here.  

Expect this one to be a close call.  

Clydebank and Milngavie  

Labour is confident of its data in the central belt, and it is an area it hopes to pick some seats off the SNP. While a lot of polling has suggested that second place in a lot of those seats could be more likely, this is one that, according to the Diffley Partnership, is too close to call.