Scotland's housing emergency: Have election pledges been delivered?

The Scottish Government knows it has to be seen to get serious on housing. From being a ministerial portfolio, the brief has now been elevated to cabinet secretary level – just in time for the upcoming election, and with rivals breathing down the SNP’s neck.

“Màiri McAllan has been tasked with tackling the housing emergency, including ensuring we have energy-efficient homes to help bring down bills and tackle the climate emergency,” said First Minister John Swinney of his new appointee following this month’s long-speculated cabinet reshuffle. “These are two of the biggest challenges facing people across the country and I want them to know they have a government firmly on their side and focused on delivering real change.”

But when the Scottish Government called the press to see McAllan in action at a development in Bathgate, she was unable to answer one of the most obvious questions – how many people are on the waiting list for social housing in Scotland? 

Some might see that as a cheap shot – after all, McAllan, just back from maternity leave, has never covered housing before and said that while she didn’t “have the figure” with her, she could refer to a “dashboard” in her office displaying key data. But it wasn’t the debut McAllan would have been hoping for. 

The state of the country’s housing supply – availability, price, quality – is one of the clearest indicators of whether the government is delivering. Key to the wellbeing of communities as well as individuals, housing is not just about where we live, but how we live. “While Scotland’s housing system is often seen as comparing favourably to its neighbouring countries across the UK, fundamental issues remain,” according to a recent paper by the Glasgow University-led UK Collaborative Centre for Housing Evidence. 

And that number McAllan was reaching for was 250,000 – more than the population of Aberdeen.

It’s no wonder, then, that housing commitments are routinely built into manifestos for Scottish Parliament elections.

But promises are one thing; delivery is another. Today, we are in a national housing emergency, something no party can ignore as preparations for the polls gain pace. 

Approaching the 2021 Holyrood race, there were commitments to end homelessness, increase housebuilding, improve stability for those renting and improve the condition of homes. All parties had related policies, but in the end only two were in a position to deliver: the SNP and the Greens, who spent two and a half years in government as the junior partner under the now-defunct Bute House Agreement.

Collaboration between the parties was based on mutual goals around the constitution, environment and social justice. Both parties said they wanted to end homelessness, the Greens committing to do so within 10 years by updating the legislative framework and adopting a ‘Housing First’ approach, which prioritises urgent rehousing and provides intensive support to individuals to tackle underlying issues like addiction and mental ill-health.

It was an approach that had already been taken up by the SNP government prior to the coalition, with £21m committed to rapid rehousing in 2018. As of the end of last September, 2,040 Housing First tenancies had started across Scotland, including 1,205 started since April 2021. 

While the intervention has been a support to individuals and families – as many as 190 children were in such tenancies in 17 local authority areas at the end of September – it has not been enough to prevent the growth in homelessness. 

According to the latest figures, the number of children in temporary accommodation is at its highest level since records began in 2002. As many as 10,360 were in temporary homes as of September last year, when the total number of households in such a position topped 16,630.

With local factors in play, rates fell in South Lanarkshire, South Ayrshire and West Dunbartonshire and rose in Dundee and Glasgow. Authorities there said the Home Office was partly responsible and moves to clear the backlog of applications by asylum seekers had led to a rush of visa grants. No longer eligible for asylum housing, those given leave to remain in the UK were moved onto mainstream social housing lists, increasing pressure on councils already struggling with inadequate supply. 

Overall, there was a near-40 per cent rise in homelessness applications from such households, from 1,435 to 1,975 during a period in which overall assessments of homelessness rose by four per cent to 17,425 households. Of this total, more than 25 per cent included children, and the majority of those looking for a roof over their heads were of white ethnicity. 

Then-housing minister Paul McLennan said “decisive action” was being taken. “The key to tackling homelessness is delivering more homes and we have a strong track record in doing so, having supported the delivery of 135,000 affordable homes since 2007. That’s 47 per cent more per head of population than England and 73 per cent more than Wales. However, we can and will go further.”

McLennan’s words came against a backdrop of clear manifesto commitments by his party, the SNP. It said it would deliver a further 100,000 affordable homes by 2032. In the 2021 programme for government, that was cemented as 110,000 energy-efficient, affordable homes, with at least seven in 10 of these to be within the social rented sector and one in 10 in remote, rural and islands communities. 

But in 2023 it emerged that the slowing pace of new approvals had brought the target into question, something that only increased with a £205m real-terms cut to the affordable housing  budget. Though that was later reversed, official tallies on building projects are not good. 

The latest figures show the number of completions in the Affordable Housing Supply Programme are down by 13 per cent year-on-year. Meanwhile, the number of homes for social rent approved under the programme has fallen by 16 per cent over the same period, reaching the lowest number in a decade. 

Before leaving office McLennan, who stepped down due to health reasons, said a review on the overall target would now take place this year, having been brought forward from 2026-27, and would have a focus on “deliverability”. On that trip to Bathgate, his successor McAllan said she would “redouble efforts”. Despite an “incredibly challenging financial settlement from the UK Government,” she said, she would “invest £768m this year in affordable housing.”

It’s impossible to say how the Tories, Labour or the Lib Dems would have done in practice. But their last manifestos all committed to taking decisive action to improve the housing sector. Between them, they promised thousands of extra homes, with the Conservatives keen to repopulate town centres to boost local economies by increasing footfall for high street traders. Vacant retail space should be converted for residential use, the party said, and Compulsory Sales Orders introduced for long-term unoccupied properties. 

The Lib Dems wanted to introduce Help to Renovate loans to make derelict addresses liveable again, and to bring in a First Time Builders Fund to help those looking to live in rural areas with a lack of homes on the market, and to set a target ensuring all social housing would be built to eco-friendly Passivhaus standards by this year.

Labour planned to overhaul the planning system to speed up approvals and also wanted to improve home ownership rates by introducing a “comprehensive mortgage guarantee scheme to support first-time buyers who struggle to save for a large deposit with lower mortgage cost”.

For the past four years in opposition, those parties have been able to criticise and cajole ministers, pressing the government on its actions and inactions without fear of their own records.

As things stand, it appears that whoever forms the next government must expect to enter office and face a problem for which there are no quick solutions. 

According to research by the Scottish Federation of Housing Associations, being stuck on a waiting list for a social home is a “devastating” experience. “They are often trapped in insecure, unaffordable housing which does not meet their needs and takes a significant toll on their physical and mental wellbeing,” according to its chief executive Sally Thomas. 

“Increasing the supply and maintenance of homes that are affordable, fuel efficient and of high quality has never been more essential in Scotland,” commented Wheatley Group chief executive Steven Henderson. The country’s largest social housing provider, Wheatley has committed to building 3,000 new affordable homes since 2021. But Henderson said demand “continues to outstrip supply” and the national shortage remains “acute”.

“In the end,” said the UK Collaborative Centre for Housing Research report, “it is critical that the current crisis is seen as an opportunity to create the conditions for long-term policies that support a pipeline of social and affordable housing much more closely connected to the outcomes of meeting local specific needs.”

This is part of the challenge awaiting the next government, along with Raac, ageing tenements, damp properties and, of course, homelessness. 

McAllan has less than a year to achieve progress on any and all of these before voters take their pick. If she is successful, she will not only improve the SNP’s standing with the public but also give opponents less ammunition with which to attack its record. But if she fails, the impacts will be felt on streets around Scotland.