Does Gorton and Denton prove Anas Sarwar was right?

Anas Sarwar may perhaps be one of few Labour figures a little cheered by the news from Manchester’s Gorton and Denton.

After the Scottish Labour leader moved to put some clear water between himself and Keir Starmer’s Labour earlier this month, he took a bit of a bashing.

To those viewing his call for Starmer to go through a Westminster lens, it looked a lot like a failed coup attempt. To those of us who at least understood his logic with May’s Holyrood election looming, it was still difficult to see what positive outcome he was expecting.

But what the Green victory down south has shown is just how bad things are for Labour right now.

Not only was the party already under pressure on the right from Reform, which looks set to win big in Scotland, Wales and the local elections in England, but the by-election result tells anti-Reform voters that they don’t have to settle for Labour either. The idea that Labour is the only party able to defeat Reform is no longer credible.

While a win for Reform here would still have been bad news for Starmer, it would have at least proven his tactic to focus on Reform-curious voters was the right one. Instead, a Green win proves what a precarious position Labour is in – losing votes to both the left and right.

In fact, the only reason it seems there aren’t immediate calls for Starmer to resign now is because this result muddies the picture. It is not a clear-cut case of Labour needing to either shift to the right to win back Reform voters or to the left to win back Green voters, since the party came third behind both challengers.

Instead the party will need to take the next few weeks to search its soul for an answer – and a leader – who can attempt the difficult (perhaps impossible) task of appealing to all. The end of Starmer’s time at the top in May seems etched in stone but it is decidedly less clear who might replace him.

Sarwar knows this. It’s why when he said his boss should go three weeks ago. He did so without being part of a wider plot and without naming who he thinks should be the successor. He does not want to spend the next ten weeks embroiled in hearsay and internal discussions. And he won’t want to repeatedly have to answer journalists’ questions about a UK leadership contest (good luck with that) while he’s trying to win an election of his own.

By getting ahead of the by-election, perhaps what Sarwar did was something even wiser than just putting distance between himself and an unpopular prime minister and government. Perhaps he has also managed to dodge questions on internal party politics by setting out his stall early. He’s already said what he has to say on the matter and can instead spend his energy between now and 7 May trying to focus on his own fight.

The chances of Sarwar entering Bute House are next to zero. The first MRP poll for Holyrood published earlier this week showed his party could suffer the same fate as it did in Manchester, with anti-Reform tactical votes carrying the SNP to a majority victory.

But as the saying goes, the only poll that matters is the one on polling day. There are plenty of central belt seats where there is a three-horse race between Labour, the SNP and Reform. The Hamilton by-election last summer showed the dangers of ruling Labour out. A good ground campaign and a strong local candidate can make all the difference. That might help Sarwar, while no longer in the running to be FM, minimise his losses.

Today at Scottish Labour’s one-day conference in Paisley, Sarwar can at least be cheered by the news that he did not make the wrong choice by attempting to untie his fate from Starmer’s.