Anas Sarwar gets his wish – so what now for Scottish Labour?

Anas Sarwar’s wish has finally come true: Starmer is out; a new political era beckons.

Too bad, then, that the prime minister’s emotional farewell has happened now, some six weeks after the devolved and local elections upon which so much rested.

It’s been four months since the Scottish Labour leader called on his UK counterpart to quit. At that time, standing in a hastily convened meeting in Glasgow’s Trades Hall, Sarwar looked an isolated man. If he’d expected the then-leader of Welsh Labour to back him up, that didn’t happen. If he’d counted on immediate backing from his Scottish MPs, he’d thought wrong, and the spectacle unfolded of party figures standing up to defend, not condemn, the PM.

Back-up did follow in time, but the management of the whole thing seemed bizarre and Sarwar looked a little like a fall guy.

Against high stakes ahead of a Holyrood contest and a jaded electorate, Sarwar’s gamble failed to produce the win he’d wanted. The distance he’d sought to create between Scottish Labour and Starmer’s government, with its policy own-goals, failed to transpire and his party slumped to its worst-ever performance in a Scottish Parliament election.

That was also the case in Wales, where Eluned Morgan was quick to resign as her party fell out of power in the Senedd for the first time. Her campaign had been so bad that Morgan, who lost her seat in the rout, even at one point urged people to vote for rivals Plaid Cymru.

And in the English local elections power again ebbed away from Labour as it lost almost 1,500 councillors.

The general election landslide of 2024 seems a long time ago indeed, and Sarwar could be forgiven a touch of ‘I told you so’. But none of it. “I'm not the type of person who looks back and thinks 'what if’,” he told reporters in Glasgow, declining to crow about his political nous. “I'm focused on the here and now, and the future.

“Keir Starmer has made the decision and it's important we give him the respect he deserves, for all he's done to change the Labour Party over the last six years and everything's he done to change the country over the last two years.

“But there comes a moment when we have to challenge those who that come next about what do they mean about change, and what outcomes they will deliver for this country.

“Do I wish we had a different outcome at the Scottish elections? Of course I do, but we live with the reality of that election result,” he went on.

That reality has left 17 Labour MSPs, sharing the runner-up place with Reform. Without a single head between the parties, they now have to take turns at getting first dibs at FMQs.

And in the recent byelections in Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry – triggered by the resignation of SNP MPs now switching to Holyrood – Labour came fourth in each.

In the former contest the party managed a paltry 1,550 votes, despite all the promises of GB Energy jobs for Aberdeen and shire.

Sarwar insists he’s staying on. But will a Burnhamism be better for Scottish Labour? It’s an odd question to be asking on the day that Andy Burnham, fresh from winning another Westminster by-election, is sworn in as an MP. But it is he who Starmer has been watching these past weeks and months as the peg on which his premiership was hung became increasingly shoogly.

Indeed, the man expected to challenge Burnham for the leadership – Wes Streeting – has already ruled himself out, flinging his support behind the former mayor of Greater Manchester.

“I think it's pretty obvious that he is the clear emerging candidate at the moment,” Sarwar said. “There may be other candidates that emerge in the coming days, but Andy is someone that I've always had a very good relationship with.”

So far, so positive – even if Sarwar hasn’t made an outright endorsement.

“We’re the great city of Glasgow, and I’ve said for many years that if Glasgow and the west of Scotland could replicate much of what's happened in Greater Manchester, we would be in a much, much better place here in Scotland,” he said.

These positive noises might not sound all that good to two of Scottish Labour’s biggest donors, McGill’s bus tycoons Sandy and James Easdale. The brothers put their money on Sarwar ahead of the Holyrood campaign and oppose bus reprivatisation.

Still, it’s not at all clear what Burnhamism would look like, much less what it would mean for Scotland.

As a much younger politician, Burnham was part of Gordon Brown’s ministerial team, serving as health secretary and chief secretary to the Treasury.

In his Makerfield byelection victory speech, he said many communities had been left behind by successive governments, with the concentration of wealth and opportunity in London and England’s south-east to the detriment of his new northern English constituents.

That issue of regional economic inequality has been live in Scottish political debate for years, with the SNP using it as part of the basis for its independence argument and Labour pledging to change the system.

That change message was in part what helped Starmer into Downing Street in the first place. Now he’s leaving without many people feeling any improvement in their circumstances.

But Sarwar, outwardly magnanimous, has insisted change was made in a tribute to Starmer which was more generous than perhaps could have been expected. “I will always be proud of the work we did together to end 14 years of Tory government, returning 37 Scottish Labour MPs. Securing shipbuilding on the Clyde for a generation, ending austerity and lifting half a million children out of poverty,” he said of his time serving Starmer. “That is a legacy no one can take away from him.

“The Labour Party must quickly return its focus to the purpose it was elected for – to deliver the change people need.

“On a personal level, I know today will have a been a difficult day for Keir. I have never doubted his integrity or determination to do what is best for our country.  I thank him and his family for their sacrifices and their service.”