All the colours, same conclusions

The time for changes and new year resolutions is upon us. It will soon be a new year and a new parliament, and with it, hopefully, some freshness and renewed enthusiasm.   

There are around 14 weeks left of this parliament. It’s one that began in an unusual fashion, during the pandemic, and it’s often been said by the class of ‘21 that it took a while to get to know their colleagues. Those who hit it off early did so over Zoom and were dubbed ‘Holyrood Zoom mates’ by some newspapers.   

Provided we can rule out another earth-shattering event like a pandemic, it seems clear that more than ever, the class of ‘26 will need to forge healthy working relationships across the benches, and quickly, with acute challenges relating to child poverty, health, and housing, to name a few.   

And with all but two of the ‘99ers standing down as well as the loss of people like Kate Forbes, Liz Smith, Richard Leonard, Sarah Boyack, Richard Lochhead, and Douglas Ross from Holyrood, it’s clear Holyrood is losing a wealth of experience.   

If current projections are accurate, 2026 could produce one of the most unusual parliaments since devolution, with Holyrood shaping up as a rainbow parliament. Recent polling from Ipsos Scotland suggests five parties could win more than 10 seats, yet only one would surpass the 20-seat mark. 

Issues like what office layouts could look like and the potential of five parties qualifying for a question at FMQs every week are interesting thoughts, but at the heart of the last rainbow parliament was the need to work more closely together across the benches than usual. And that, for me, is how the Scottish Parliament in theory would best serve Scotland.  

Of course, we have seen this current parliament's willingness to work cross-party, especially since the SNP ended the Bute House Agreement. Last year’s budget was a great example of this. The SNP only needed the support of either the Greens or the Lib Dems, but John Swinney and Shona Robison made a point of brokering deals with both, as well as Alba.   

And the results were undeniably positive: funding was secured for Corseford College, Scotland’s only further education pathway for people with additional support needs, and more money was made available for drug and alcohol services, hospices, and nature restoration.   

A rainbow parliament in 2026 should, in theory, lead to more compromise. That was the experience between 2003 and 2007, during Holyrood’s first rainbow parliament. With the Labour–Lib Dem coalition holding a majority of just two MSPs, the government could not assume the smooth passage of legislation and was often forced to negotiate with smaller parties or risk amendments passing against its wishes. 

But it’s unlikely to be the same this time around, if the conclusions from the most recent Ipsos Scotland poll are how the election plays out. It places the SNP on 60 seats, Labour 19, the Greens and Reform on 17, the Tories 11, and the Lib Dems five.   

While there will be obvious differences to the current make-up of the parliament, i.e. the seemingly inevitable introduction Reform as a disruptor, and a far weaker opposition party, the SNP’s position as a fairly comfortable minority government propped up by the Scottish Greens seems likely remain as the status quo.    

This dulls the excitement of what a rainbow parliament could do for Scotland.   

And with John Swinney’s election messaging heavily centred around achieving a second independence referendum through securing a majority of SNP seats at Holyrood – which looks unlikely – if he is unsuccessful, where does that leave the SNP and independence for the next decade? It’s hard to argue that it would need to be shelved for years and focus on all its efforts on eradicating child poverty and improving the state of the NHS, education, and housing.  

It feels like he’s gone all in with weak cards. And if we do find ourselves having another SNP minority government assisted by the Greens, are we resigned to another five more years of underdelivering on key issues like child poverty, housing, health and education, while celebrating being slightly better than the rest of the UK in some aspects?   

What does that say about Holyrood – an institution still young in its current form – when it has been governed for almost two decades by a party repeatedly chosen by voters, but has been unable to solve some of the most pressing challenges facing Scotland in a generation?