2020 Vision: Political fortune-tellers might be talking crystal balls

Fortune-telling is a tricky thing. What’s coming for us? Who knows!

According to France’s National Institute of Divinatory Arts, most of the country’s clairvoyants don’t know what they’re talking about. Haven’t heard of the National Institute of Divinatory Arts? Maybe you’re one of the 75,000 mediums it says are incompetent, dishonest, or both. 

The sector’s 100,000 psychics apparently conjure up a magique €3bn a year thanks to a surge in online consultations. But Youcef Sissaoui, head of the institute, has gone to the government looking for new regulations to crackdown on those who only claim to have ‘the gift’, as opposed to the ones who definitely have it. 

Most, he says, “have no knowledge and are only trained to defraud people”. Someone should really have predicted that.

So in politics, when someone claims they can predict the future, make sure you have a sachet of salt handy – they might just be talking crystal balls.

Of course, you miss 100 per cent of the shots you don’t take, so maybe the big swings many of our political players take on what comes next can be forgiven.

Take Brexit for instance. As the UK moved to extricate itself from the European Union, there were predictions from some corners that the continental bloc was sunk. Brussels had been presented by Leavers as an anchor weighing Britain down. Now the chains were being cut, it was suggested that other EU nations would also jump ship. 

Nigel Farage, for instance, predicted that the union would be no more “within 10 years”. Italy, Denmark and Poland would be amongst the first to go, he said in 2020 as official links were broken, and the whole thing would be kaput by 2030.

Maybe the ex-MEP will turn out to be right. But after reading research published this month, I’m not so sure. According to a survey covering citizens across all member states, more than half of Europeans have a positive image of the EU, and nearly two in three (66 per cent) are optimistic about its future. For young people that score was even higher, with 72 per cent of 15 to 24-year-olds expecting good things in the institution’s future.

That’s a far more positive outlook than the UK-based naysayers had on the cards.

The Eurobarometer survey, carried out for the European Parliament, also found that three quarters of those asked (73 per cent) think their country has benefited from being part of the bloc, with the most commonly expressed benefits given as the protection of peace and strengthened security; improved cooperation with nearby nations; and the contribution to economic growth. More than seven in 10 say they see the actions of the EU impact on their daily lives, and while for 18 per cent perceive that effect as negative, 50 per cent regard it as positive.

The remaining 31 per cent said the impact was neither positive or negative. Maybe their tea leaves were unclear. 

But what was certain was what citizens wanted from EU leaders – action to tackle inflation, rising prices and the cost of living; defence and security measures; and steps to combat poverty and social exclusion.

The results are based on interviews with 26,400 people and include input from the countries flagged by Farage for future uncoupling. 

I haven’t contacted any French palmists for their take on the matter, so perhaps my research isn’t as thorough as it could be. But based on those results, the vibes in favour of the EU seem to be pretty strong.

And when you think about it, Brexit was pretty vibes-based. Unhappy with the NHS? That’ll be Europe’s fault, mate. Can’t get on the housing ladder? Bloody Europe. Food prices too high? The Blob in Brussels is at it again! Time to get rid of them, that’ll do it – I can feel it in my waters. Anyway, far from looking for a ‘Dexit’, Denmark has this summer taken up the presidency of the EU Council and has named enlargement of the bloc as a key priority. “Concrete progress” is said to have taken place in negotiations including the inclusion of beleaguered Ukraine, which the council has said is making “impressive” reform efforts even as Russian bombs continue to fall. 

Scotland, of course, remains on the outside, looking in. External affairs secretary Angus Robertson has written to key Danish ministers expressing Scottish Government commitment to working with the EU, particularly on the green transition and research and innovation. His party advocates for an independent Scotland in Europe. From where we stand in the closing half of 2025, is that more or less likely than it was after the Leave majority was confirmed in 2016? 

It’s hard to divine the answer to that one in the long term, but what can be assured is that the sizeable Reform UK presence predicted for the next Scottish Parliament won’t be working towards any such goal. Currently represented by a lone soldier in Tory defector Graham Simpson, Farage’s party is the most Eurosceptic presence in Holyrood. If those ranks grow, how will it affect our engagement with the EU? I wish I could tell you. 

Or, wait – what I mean is, it’s coming through now… Yes – I mean, oui, oui – it's becoming clearer... I think I can predict the outcome of the next election… Just cross my palm with euros and don’t tell the National Institute of Divinatory Arts.