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by John Ashmore
10 October 2016
Tories take 17 point post-conference lead over Labour across the UK

Tories take 17 point post-conference lead over Labour across the UK

Theresa May - Joe Giddens/PA

The Conservatives have registered their highest poll lead over Labour since 2008 in a new ICM poll for The Guardian.

Theresa May’s party has opened up a 17-point gap over the Opposition, which has just appointed a reshuffled frontbench team following Jeremy Corbyn’s re-election as leader.

Were that performance replicated at a general election, the Prime Minister could expect to increase her majority to over 100, even with a reduced number of seats as a result of the upcoming boundary changes.


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According to the Electoral Calculus website, Labour could slip to as few as 162 seats, while the Liberal Democrats would have just five MPs.

The Guardian/ICM poll showed a small post-conference bounce for the Conservatives, who at 43 per cent were two points higher than in early September, while Labour fell two points down from a month ago to hit 26 per cent.

The only lead higher than they currently enjoy was in 2008, when then opposition leader David Cameron held a 20-point advantage over Gordon Brown.

For Labour this is the worst performance in an ICM poll since August 2009 when they registered just 25 per cent.

It suggests that although Corbyn has succeeded in signing up thousands of new members to the party, he is failing to cut through to the general public, or perhaps May's 'hard Brexit' message played well with voters.

His party’s conference in Liverpool was marred by an incident where then Shadow Defence Secretary Clive Lewis reacted angrily after his speech was altered at the last minute by spin doctor Seumas Milne.

The Conservatives may also have benefited from a fall in support for UKIP, who registered just 11 per cent, their lowest level since the general election. 

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