TNS poll shows fall in support for the SNP

Support for the SNP has dropped in both the constituency and regional ballots ahead of the Scottish Parliament elections, according to a new poll by TNS.

The poll also found 51 per cent of respondents plan to vote to remain in the European Union, with 19 per cent intending to vote leave and 29 per cent still undecided.

In the constituency vote, the poll put support for the SNP on 56 per cent, down four per cent on last month.

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Labour failed to capitalise on falling support for the SNP, however, with support in the constituency vote showing Labour on 19 per cent (down two), the Conservatives on 15 per cent (up two), and the Lib Dems on six per cent (up two).

TNS put support for the SNP on the regional list at 47 per cent (down eight), with Lab 21 per cent (unchanged), the Tories on 15 per cent (up two), the Lib Dems on six per cent (up two) and the Greens on eight per cent (up two).

Head of TNS Scotland Tom Costley said: “It may be that as people have started receiving leaflets at home and hearing more about the Holyrood election, they are perhaps being reminded about the possibility of using their ‘second vote’ to support an alternative party or candidate.

“Indeed, as it looks increasingly likely that the SNP will form the next Scottish government, voters may be starting to think about supporting another party in the regional vote without worrying that this will jeopardise an SNP victory. 

“It is also possible that some voters want to ensure there is a viable opposition in the Scottish Parliament which is capable of holding the SNP government (possibly majority government) to account.”

This latest data from TNS show the percentage who say they are certain to vote in the Holyrood election is steady at 67 per cent compared to last month. In a development that might concern Labour, 69 per cent of their voters say they are certain to vote, compared to 80 per cent of Conservative and SNP supporters.

TNS also found Labour supporters are the most likely to vote to remain in the EU, at 66 per cent, followed by SNP voters, at 60 per cent. The lowest level of support to remain is among Conservative voters, at 45 per cent, though of these, only 33 per cent say they plan to vote to leave.

It found 24 per cent of SNP voters are still undecided on the EU, versus 22 per cent for the Conservatives and 17 per cent for Labour.

Costley added: “The high number of undecided voters at this stage is not surprising, given the greater focus in Scotland on the Holyrood election. This means the debate on EU membership is not yet taking on the same level of importance as in other parts of the UK. 

“However, the anticipated high turnout may also show the public appreciates the importance of the issue, given it is being put to a referendum”.

The poll found 72 per cent of Scots say they are certain to vote in the EU referendum on June 23.