Subscribe to Holyrood updates

Newsletter sign-up


Follow us

Scotland’s fortnightly political & current affairs magazine


Subscribe to Holyrood
by Kirsteen Paterson
22 March 2022
Three in five Scots expect the demise of the UK within 10 years, Ipsos poll finds

Three in five Scots expect the demise of the UK within 10 years, Ipsos poll finds

Pollsters find division over the future amidst economic gloom

The UK will not exist within its current form within a decade, most Scots say.

New polling by Ipsos found Scottish adults are more likely to predict constitutional change than those in England or Wales.

A total of 61 per cent of Scottish adults predict major change within a decade, as do half of people across the UK as a whole.

Meanwhile, 46 per cent of Scots say the UK will have ceased to exist in its current form within five years. That compares with 33 per cent for the UK as a whole.

Scottish Government partners the SNP and Scottish Greens are both committed to a second independence referendum.

Nicola Sturgeon has said that she will seek this in 2023.

Ipsos found that if this goes ahead, 55 per cent of people in England would prefer Scotland to back the status quo. Just 13 per cent of those surveyed in England said they would prefer Scotland to vote for independence.

The figures are similar for Wales, where 53 per cent would want Scotland to stay in the Union, but in Northern Ireland 29 per cent of people would back independence for Scotland, with only 42 per cent hoping for a continuation of the status quo.

Meanwhile, there is widespread pessimism about the UK's economic outlook in the next 12 months.

Across the UK as a whole, as many as 67 per cent expect the general economic condition to worsen, while only 15 per cent think it will improve.

In Scotland, 73 per cent believe things will get worse within the next year.

When asked about Scotland's economic outlook, 68 per cent say that will get worse during the period.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos Scotland, said: "Scots are pessimistic about the country's economic prospects, which shows the public are well aware of the challenges facing the Scottish Government in delivering on its recently published National Strategy for Economic Transformation. 

"Given wider pressures on the cost of living and the ongoing Covid pandemic, it comes as no surprise that people are feeling uncertain about the short-term future of the economy and are divided over whether Scotland’s economic prospects are likely to be any different from the UK’s as a whole. 

"Meanwhile, although three in five Scots expect the demise of the UK within 10 years, those in England and Wales would still prefer Scotland to vote No in any second referendum."

Holyrood Newsletters

Holyrood provides comprehensive coverage of Scottish politics, offering award-winning reporting and analysis: Subscribe

Read the most recent article written by Kirsteen Paterson - John Swinney in 'prejudice' claim as he refuses to back Michael Matheson suspension.

Get award-winning journalism delivered straight to your inbox

Get award-winning journalism delivered straight to your inbox


Popular reads
Back to top