SNP set for victory and Reform on track for second, polls say in final predictions

The SNP are on track to be the biggest party at Holyrood but will be denied a majority, the final series of polls published ahead of the vote say.

Pollsters also agree Reform will leapfrog all opposition parties to become the second largest party in parliament, while Labour is set to lose out significantly.

A poll out today, on the final day of the campaign, predicts the SNP will return 57 MSPs – but with a significantly reduced share of the vote.

Conducted for STV by Ipsos, it shows the party on 35 per cent in the constituency vote and 26 per cent on the list.

Reform would come second with 20 MSPs, winning 18 per cent on both ballots, while the Greens could be third on 18 seats. This would involve them winning constituencies for the first time in Glasgow and Edinburgh, though the constituency vote share would only be two per cent as they are only standing in six seats across Scotland. The Greens’ list voting intention share was 17 per cent.

The poll made grim reading for Labour’s Anas Sarwar, whose party could be reduced to 15 seats based on 20 per cent of the constituency vote and 15 per cent on the list. The Lib Dems would be next on 11 seats, while the Conservatives would suffer a significant defeat – returning just eight MSPs.

A majority at Holyrood requires 65 seats and most polls throughout the campaign have shown the SNP falling short of this, despite leader John Swinney setting this as his ambition in order to push for a second independence referendum.

A separate YouGov poll, published by The Times on Tuesday evening, had the SNP winning 62 seats.

Reform would be a distant second on 19, followed by Labour on 17. The Greens were close behind on 16 seats.

The Lib Dems would slightly increase the size of its MSP group to eight, while the Tories would become the smallest party in the parliament on just seven. Worse still for the party, the MRP suggested leader Russell Findlay would fail to be re-elected because Jackson Carlaw could win his constituency race in Eastwood.

And More in Common’s poll earlier this week put the SNP in 60 seats, Reform on 22, and Labour falling well behind on 13.

The Conservatives didn’t fare as poorly in this poll but were still down to 12, with the Lib Dems also taking 12. The Greens would grow their group, though not as significantly as other polls show, to 10.