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by Ruaraidh Gilmour
07 February 2024
SNP lead Labour by seven points in new election polling

Humza Yousaf and Anas Sarwar | Alamy

SNP lead Labour by seven points in new election polling

The SNP lead Labour by seven points on general election voting intentions, according to a new poll by Ipsos Scotland and STV News.  

It shows that the gap in voting intentions is narrowing between the two parties, falling relatively sharply from the largest gap in recent times of 26 points in December 2022.  

The poll also shows that support for Scottish independence has seen little change since polling by Ipsos Scotland in November last year, showing 53 per cent for Yes and 47 per cent for No. 

The poll found that while the SNP remains the most trusted party, Scottish Labour has seen a rise in public trust including on the NHS and the economy.  

Support for the Conservatives has fallen by one point but has remained relatively similar since December 2022, while the same could be said for the Liberal Democrats and the Greens. 

At Holyrood, constituency voting intentions show that the SNP have a nine-point lead over Labour, but like Westminster voting intentions, that has narrowed from 14 points in May 2023.  

Regional list voting intentions have been whittled down to a two-point lead, down from seven in November 2023.  

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said: “These results underline that while the Labour Party is making considerable headway in Scotland, the party’s leadership should not be complacent about the SNP as an electoral force.  

“Humza Yousaf’s party still has a lead on voting intention for both Westminster and Holyrood elections and is the party that the Scottish public trust most to manage the NHS, the economy, education and the cost-of-living crisis.  

“The direction of travel will worry the SNP, as Labour has been gaining ground across a range of policy issues while trust in the SNP has been on the wane.  

“Given the profile of marginal seats in Scotland, even small changes in vote share can make a big difference to the final result – which means there is still much uncertainty for the parties at this point in an election year.” 

SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: “It's encouraging that people across Scotland continue to support the SNP and our strong record in government. The SNP will never take a single vote for granted, and will keep delivering for people across Scotland every day by focussing on their priorities.

"With [support for] independence at 53 per cent in this poll, people also back our positive vision for Scotland’s future, as an independent country in the EU with full access to the single European market.”

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