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by Jenni Davidson
13 October 2019
Nearly 60 per cent of undecided Scots more likely to vote for independence in case of no-deal Brexit

Two people holding a Union Jack and a saltire - Image credit: Holyrood Magazine

Nearly 60 per cent of undecided Scots more likely to vote for independence in case of no-deal Brexit

Nearly 60 per cent of undecided Scots voters would be more likely to vote for independence if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, a new poll has found.

According to a Survation poll for pro-independence think tank Progress Scotland, 59 per cent of voters who are undecided or open-minded on independence would be more likely to vote for it in a future referendum if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, while 15 per cent would not be, 21 per cent were neutral and five per cent didn’t know.

Fifty-three per cent of respondents said that Brexit had changed their view on independence compared to 16 per cent who said it hadn’t.

Meanwhile 61 per cent agreed that Brexit had made independence more likely and 55 per cent of all those polled thought it was likely there would be another independence referendum within the next two years.

Only 24 per cent believed the UK should leave the EU without a deal on 31 October if agreement on a deal could not be reached, while 55 per cent believed it should not leave without a deal.

Regarding the country’s future relationship with Europe, 62 per cent thought an independent Scotland should be a full member of the European Union, with only 23 per cent opposed to it joining the EU.

Progress Scotland is a research organisation set up by the former deputy leader of the SNP Angus Robertson to consider what issues are changing people’s minds about Scottish independence. 

The poll was carried out among 2,032 people aged over 16 in Scotland, with a series of questions put to respondents who were undecided or open-minded about Scottish independence to find out what impact that Brexit is having among key swing voters.

Commenting on poll, Robertson said: “These poll results show that Brexit is having a major impact on general public opinion on the timing of a second independence referendum, and particularly on swing voters who are open-minded or undecided on Scottish independence.

“Swing voters on Scottish independence are strongly opposed to a no-deal Brexit and 59 per cent say that if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, they would be more likely to vote for independence in a future referendum.

“A clear majority believe that Brexit makes Scottish independence more likely and that their views have changed about Scottish independence.

“Clearly Brexit is having a major impact on public opinion in Scotland and we will continue to research this and the other factors which are driving changes on voting intentions ahead of an independence referendum.”

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