Hard Brexit would leave Scotland worse off by £12.7bn per year, warns Scottish Government
A hard Brexit would leave Scotland worse off by around £12.7bn per year by 2030, according to new analysis by the Scottish Government.
In a new paper, Scotland's Place in Europe: People, Jobs and Investment, the Scottish Government mapped out three possible outcomes from the UK’s negotiations over Brexit, including the prospect of Scotland remaining within the single market and customs union, the UK and EU agreeing a free trade agreement, and the possibility of a deal which saw trade revert to World Trade Organisation terms.
Under the latter scenario, the paper suggests Scotland would lose around 8.5 per cent of GDP, equivalent to £2,300 per person.
But the paper also warns that there would be a financial cost even if the UK government can realise its preferred option of securing a free trade deal with the EU post-Brexit.
Appearing on the Andrew Marr show yesterday, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: "It's looking in a clear-eyed, hard-headed way at what the impact on our economy will be."
She added: "This is modelling done by Scottish Government economists.
"It is an economic model and what it says is that by far the best option for the Scottish economy is to stay in the EU, but short of that the least damaging option is staying in the single market."
A UK Government spokesperson said: "Rather than trying to undermine the result of a democratic referendum, we urge the Scottish government to work with us to ensure, as we leave the EU, we protect the UK's vital internal market.”
"Scotland trades four times as much with the rest of the UK as it does with the EU, so it is vital that we ensure that market continues unimpeded."