Half of Scottish constituencies on a knife-edge with SNP ‘squeezed on all sides’, poll finds

The SNP will be “squeezed on all sides” in the Holyrood election, with most seats won by unionists.

A new poll suggests the SNP and Greens will not secure enough support to ensure a pro-independence majority is returned.

John Swinney’s party is expected to remain the largest, according to the MRP poll, which suggests that almost half of all constituencies are on “razor thin margins”, but will lose seats as it is “squeezed from right, left, and centre at the same time”.

Thirty-nine of the country’s 73 constituencies could be won on margins of less than five points.

The findings come from think tank More in Common, and suggest Swinney’s team will win 56 seats – nine short of a majority – with the Greens winning eight.

The total would give pro-independence parties 64 seats to 65 for pro-union parties.

Reform UK is expected to become the largest of these on 22 seats, with Labour on 17, the Liberal Democrats on 14 and the Conservatives on 12.

The polling covers 5000 people and was carried out between February and April.

Luke Tryl from More in Common said: “Having been in power for almost two decades, the SNP are clearly suffering from the curse of incumbency that has afflicted governments around the world. Although they look set to maintain power in Holyrood it will almost certainly be with significantly diminished vote share and this model estimates a lower seat count too.

 “The SNP benefit however from a further fragmentation of the unionist vote with Reform UK emerging as the strongest unionist party and official opposition as Farage finally breaks through north of the border. The Conservatives and Labour meanwhile are heading for their worst result since devolution.

“That said, the biggest takeaway from this model is the sheer uncertainty that six party politics creates. Close to half of the constituency seats are estimated to be decided on a margin of less than five points, meaning that there really is all to play for in the closing weeks of this campaign.” 

Support for the SNP is strongest in Inverclyde, Coatbridge and Chryston and Argyll and Bute, according to the polling.

But the party would lose Ayr and Banffshire and Buchan Coast to Reform and cede three seats to the Lib Dems: Caithness, Sutherland and Ross; Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch; and Strathkelvin and Bearsden.

Meanwhile, the Greens would win their first constituencies in Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill and Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith, it is claimed, with Labour victorious Edinburgh Central.