2021 election under 2026 boundaries: Here’s what would have happened

The Scottish Greens would have two more seats in the Scottish Parliament, at the expense of the SNP and Labour, had the 2021 election been fought on 2026 boundaries.

According to analysis by Ballot Box Scotland (BBS), the SNP’s Emma Harper would not have been returned via the South Scotland list – with that seat instead going to the Greens.

And in Glasgow, Labour’s Pam Duncan-Glancy would not have made it into parliament with that list seat instead going to a second Glasgow Green MSP.

These changes would have resulted in the SNP winning 63 seats (-1), the Conservatives on 31 (no change), Labour having 21 (-1), the Greens securing 10 (+2) and the Lib Dems on four (no change).

What are notional results?

These notional results show what the political make-up of Holyrood would have been if the results of the 2021 election are directly mapped onto the new electoral boundaries.

BBS conducted the analysis using detailed election data and the final recommendations for new electoral boundaries published by Boundaries Scotland.

Boundaries Scotland is tasked with conducting a periodic review of Scottish Parliament constituencies and regions every eight to 12 years.

The first review took place between 2008 and 2010. This is the second review, which began in September 2022.

The final report has now been sent to Scottish ministers and will most likely be approved by the Scottish Parliament without further changes. It means the new boundaries will be in place by for the election next year.

What boundaries are they changing?

The review is intended to respond to changing populations across the country, similar to the Westminster boundary changes that were made ahead of last year’s general election.

Of the 73 constituency seats, 28 remain unchanged – that includes the three island seats of Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands which are protected by law. There are 22 constituencies which have new boundaries but no name change, 20 have both new boundaries and new names, while three have no boundary changes but a new name.

There are also the eight regions, which elect list MSPs. Of these, Mid Scotland and Fife is unchanged, while Highland and Islands and North East Scotland undergo minor boundaries changes. The boundaries of Glasgow, South Scotland and West Scotland are changing, though they retain their existing names.

The biggest changes are to Central and Lothian regions – which have significant boundaries changes and will be renamed Central Scotland and Lothians West; and Edinburgh and Lothians East.

All these changes are a result of the population of Scotland’s central belt generally moving east, while in the north is remains fairly similar to when the last review took place.

How would the Greens have two more seats?

Essentially, the Greens become winners in South Scotland because the region is set to contain ten constituencies, up from the current nine. List MSPs are elected through a proportional system, and this change means instead list votes are divided by a higher number – which gives the Greens just enough to beat the SNP.

Meanwhile in Glasgow, the city loses its Cardonald area to the West region. This is typically a Labour-friendly area – and so the Greens would have just beat them to that last list seat.

What might the changes mean for prospects next year?

The changes in Edinburgh will be the ones to watch.

BBS says there has been a “slight weakening” of Labour’s chance of regaining the East Lothian constituency – once held by former leader Iain Gray, now held by the SNP’s Paul McLennan. The new East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs constituency is less Labour-leaning than what it replaces.

Meanwhile, its Edinburgh Southern seat (Daniel Johnson’s) becomes ever safer. In fact, it broadly mirrors the party’s safest Westminster seat, held by Scottish secretary Ian Murray.

The Greens are now in with a chance for Edinburgh Central – currently held by culture secretary Angus Robertson. It is the party’s best shot of winning a constituency (a milestone that has eluded the party for the entirety of devolution), taking over from Glasgow Kelvin (where changes mean it is no longer as competitive).

And in Edinburgh Northern (held by Ben Macpherson, though he’s facing internal competition for candidacy), the Liberal Democrats are in a “strong position” according to BBS.

Allan Faulds, who runs BBS, explains: “The new Edinburgh Central seat becomes the best hope the Greens have ever had of winning a constituency, whilst the Lib Dems have been rubbing their hands with glee over Edinburgh Northern. Were the results of the 2022 local elections in those areas to be replicated next year, both parties would emerge victorious in their respective targets.”

In the council election two years ago, the Greens secured over a quarter of the vote in Edinburgh Central – 2.3 percentage points above the SNP.

In Edinburgh Northern, the Lib Dems won 29.3 per cent of the vote, 4.3 percentage points than the SNP.